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VXX Analyse

Saturday, 16 July 2022

PROFIT TARGET: 1%

QUOTE SUMMARY

VIX-FUTURESCURVE

Show contango,backwardation of vix future curves and last 3 days closing prices.
---------------------------------------------------
|  F1-F2 : F4-F7 %  | SPOT-F1 |  F1-F2  |  F4-F7  |
---------------------------------------------------
|  C:4.68 C :0.97   | -2.329  | -1.244  | -0.279  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|. DATUM  .|  SPOT   |   F1    |   F2    |   F4    |   F7    |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2022-07-15|  24.23  | 26.559  | 27.803  | 28.746  | 29.025  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2022-07-14|  26.40  | 27.945  | 28.859  | 29.347  | 29.450  |
--------------------------------------------------------------
|2022-07-13|  0.00   | 26.864  | 27.878  | 29.217  | 29.650  |
--------------------------------------------------------------

VXX QUOTES

VXX Quote summary of last 3 days
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    . DATUM  .     |       OPEN        |       HIGH        |        LOW        |       CLOSE       |CANDLE SIZE VS PREV|  UP-DW CLO->CLO   |  UP-DW OPE->CLO   |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-15     |       21.98       |       22.12       |       21.37       |       21.54       |  3.51% : 0.10%    |        -3         |        -1         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-14     |       22.99       |       23.06       |       22.30       |       22.32       |  3.41% : -0.52%   |        -2         |         0         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-13     |       22.86       |       23.03       |       22.16       |       22.41       |  3.93% : 0.47%    |        -1         |         0         |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STATISTIQUES

Legend

Tbl 1. Short Long Target Reached

Show how many times target is reached in a row based on last day, and view how much occurances there is if serie continues.
-----------------------------------------
|   SHORTYESDAYS    |    LONGNODAYS     |
-----------------------------------------
|        12         |         3         |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    POPULATION     |  SHORTYESDAYS >   |   LONGNODAYS >    |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|      # 3383       |   # 36 : 1.06%    |   # 88 : 2.60%    |
-------------------------------------------------------------
| SHORTYESDAYS= 12  | SHORTYESDAYS= 13  |      Percent      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|        19         |        12         |      63.1579      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|   LONGNODAYS= 3   |   LONGNODAYS= 4   |      Percent      |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|        111        |        51         |      45.9459      |
-------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 2. Candle Size Next Day Indicator

Compares the last day candlesize within a range and retrieves the next day occurences, to see how many times the strategies have reach their target the next day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| SIZE : L-U RANGE  |    POPULATION     |    LONGYESDAYS    |   SHORTYESDAYS    |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   3.51% : 3 : 5   |       1253        |   771 : 61.53%    |   878 : 70.07%    |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 3. Grow-Shrink Days next day indicator

How many days in a row the candlesize is growing,shrinking, viewed alongside how many times in a row our targets where hit.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|            DATUM            |       GROW-SHRINKDAYS       |      SHORT Y : N DAYS       |       LONG Y : N DAYS       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2022-07-15          |         1    :    0         |        12    :    0         |        0    :     3         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2022-07-14          |         0    :    1         |        11    :    0         |        0    :     2         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|         2022-07-13          |         3    :    0         |        10    :    0         |        0    :     1         |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   POPULATION GROWDAYS = 1   |        SHORTYESDAYS         |         LONGYESDAYS         |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|            1074             |             743             |             735             |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   POP. GROWDAYS NEXT DAY    |        SHORTYESDAYS         |         LONGYESDAYS         |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|            1073             |             747             |             720             |             -               |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 4. Daily Candle Size

------------------------------------------------------------------
|   MONTH    |AVG DAY SIZE|    YEAR    |AVG DAY SIZE| AVG 30 DAY |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|  January   |    8.85    |    2009    |   4.15 %   |   4.21 %   |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|  February  |    8.00    |    2010    |   4.71 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|   March    |    9.86    |    2011    |   5.02 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|   April    |    5.87    |    2012    |   5.00 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|    May     |    6.08    |    2013    |   3.86 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|    June    |    4.63    |    2014    |   4.05 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|    July    |    3.49    |    2015    |   5.25 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2016    |   4.72 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2017    |   3.35 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2018    |   5.62 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2019    |   4.06 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2020    |   6.29 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2021    |   5.30 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |    2022    |   6.97 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------
|     -      |     -      |   GLOBAL   |   4.81 %   |     -      |
------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 5. Population Frequency Table

Shows how many times in a row a strategie reached target,how many times this occured. So you could detect outlier moves
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      #       |  SHORT YES   |   LONG YES   | SHORT NODAYS | LONG NODAYS  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      1       | 692 - 29.31% | 696 - 31.38% | 692 - 67.71% | 696 - 59.74% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      2       | 475 - 20.12% | 451 - 20.33% | 204 - 19.96% | 270 - 23.18% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      3       | 337 - 14.27% | 305 - 13.75% |  79 - 7.73%  | 111 - 9.53%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      4       | 258 - 10.93% | 207 - 9.33%  |  29 - 2.84%  |  51 - 4.38%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      5       | 169 - 7.16%  | 144 - 6.49%  |  11 - 1.08%  |  22 - 1.89%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      6       | 117 - 4.96%  | 102 - 4.60%  |  6 - 0.59%   |  13 - 1.12%  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      7       |  86 - 3.64%  |  67 - 3.02%  |  1 - 0.10%   |  2 - 0.17%   |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      8       |  62 - 2.63%  |  49 - 2.21%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      9       |  48 - 2.03%  |  36 - 1.62%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      10      |  36 - 1.52%  |  30 - 1.35%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      11      |  26 - 1.10%  |  23 - 1.04%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      12      |  19 - 0.80%  |  20 - 0.90%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      13      |  12 - 0.51%  |  17 - 0.77%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      14      |  6 - 0.25%   |  16 - 0.72%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      15      |  6 - 0.25%   |  13 - 0.59%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      16      |  4 - 0.17%   |  10 - 0.45%  |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      17      |  2 - 0.08%   |  7 - 0.32%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      18      |  1 - 0.04%   |  6 - 0.27%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      19      |  1 - 0.04%   |  5 - 0.23%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      20      |  1 - 0.04%   |  3 - 0.14%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      21      |  1 - 0.04%   |  3 - 0.14%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      22      |  1 - 0.04%   |  1 - 0.05%   |      -       |      -       |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      23      |  1 - 0.04%   |  1 - 0.05%   |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   MAX. SY    |   MAX. SN    |   MAX. LY    |   MAX. LN    |    MAX HH    |    MAX LL    |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|      23      |      7       |      29      |      7       |      9       |     -12      |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   TOT. SY    |   TOT. SN    |   TOT. LY    |   TOT. LN    |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|2361 : 69.79% |1022 : 30.21% |2218 : 65.56% |1165 : 34.44% |      -       |      -       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 6. UP AND DOWN CLOSE VS CLOSE FREQ. TABLE

Shows hom many times in a row the close price is lower(negative numbers) or higher (positive numbers) than the previous day close price.
----------------------------------------------
|     U-D      |    FREQ.     |      %       |
----------------------------------------------
|     -12      |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -11      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -10      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -9      |      7       |     0.21     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -8      |      15      |     0.44     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -7      |      31      |     0.92     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -6      |      58      |     1.71     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -5      |     114      |     3.37     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -4      |     177      |     5.23     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -3      |     295      |     8.72     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -2      |     474      |    14.01     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -1      |     803      |    23.74     |
----------------------------------------------
|      0       |      33      |     0.98     |
----------------------------------------------
|      1       |     798      |    23.59     |
----------------------------------------------
|      2       |     337      |     9.96     |
----------------------------------------------
|      3       |     139      |     4.11     |
----------------------------------------------
|      4       |      50      |     1.48     |
----------------------------------------------
|      5       |      27      |     0.80     |
----------------------------------------------
|      6       |      12      |     0.35     |
----------------------------------------------
|      7       |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|      8       |      2       |     0.06     |
----------------------------------------------
|      9       |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------

Tbl 8. UP AND DOWN ON OPEN VS CLOSE FREQ. TABLE

Shows hom many times in a row the open price is lower(negative numbers) or higher (positive numbers) than the previous days close price.
----------------------------------------------
|     U-D      |    FREQ.     |      %       |
----------------------------------------------
|     -13      |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -12      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -11      |      3       |     0.09     |
----------------------------------------------
|     -10      |      6       |     0.18     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -9      |      8       |     0.24     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -8      |      14      |     0.41     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -7      |      22      |     0.65     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -6      |      41      |     1.21     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -5      |      77      |     2.28     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -4      |     141      |     4.17     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -3      |     246      |     7.27     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -2      |     464      |    13.72     |
----------------------------------------------
|      -1      |     867      |    25.63     |
----------------------------------------------
|      0       |     576      |    17.03     |
----------------------------------------------
|      1       |     671      |    19.83     |
----------------------------------------------
|      2       |     183      |     5.41     |
----------------------------------------------
|      3       |      44      |     1.30     |
----------------------------------------------
|      4       |      11      |     0.33     |
----------------------------------------------
|      5       |      4       |     0.12     |
----------------------------------------------
|      6       |      1       |     0.03     |
----------------------------------------------

Tbl 9. Lower Opening Percentage Next Day when contango

Shows percentage of chance if the next day will open lower and we are in contango for F1-F2
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    POPULATION     |     LOWEROPEN     |    PERCENTAGE     |
-------------------------------------------------------------
|       2826        |       1626        |       58.00       |
-------------------------------------------------------------

Tbl 10. Vix 20 D Low Close Point.

Shows the lowest close quote of the last 20 days of VIX
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|       DATE        |       OPEN        |       CLOSE       |        LOW        |       HIGH        |       MIN20       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-15     |       26.72       |       24.23       |       24.13       |       26.72       |       24.23       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-14     |       27.47       |       26.40       |       26.20       |       28.45       |       24.64       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-13     |       27.35       |       26.82       |       26.23       |       29.06       |       24.64       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-12     |       27.14       |       27.29       |       25.82       |       27.75       |       24.64       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-11     |       26.42       |       26.17       |       25.79       |       26.74       |       24.64       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-08     |       26.41       |       24.64       |       24.43       |       26.61       |       24.64       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-07     |       26.73       |       26.08       |       25.66       |       26.79       |       26.08       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-06     |       27.84       |       26.73       |       26.43       |       28.07       |       26.09       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-05     |       27.37       |       27.54       |       27.30       |       29.82       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-04     |       29.53       |       26.70       |       26.69       |       29.59       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-07-01     |       29.53       |       26.70       |       26.69       |       29.59       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-30     |       29.42       |       28.71       |       28.28       |       30.22       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-29     |       28.80       |       28.16       |       27.85       |       29.36       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-28     |       26.90       |       28.36       |       26.47       |       28.68       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-27     |       28.30       |       26.95       |       26.93       |       28.66       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-24     |       29.07       |       27.23       |       26.83       |       29.72       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-23     |       29.29       |       29.05       |       28.74       |       29.77       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-22     |       31.45       |       28.95       |       28.78       |       31.57       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-21     |       30.63       |       30.19       |       29.33       |       30.65       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    2022-06-20     |       32.84       |       31.13       |       30.47       |       33.31       |       23.96       |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        
                                                        
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