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Workers are not switching jobs more often

Millennials, it turns out, are as loyal (and boring) as previous generations

EVERYBODY knows or at least thinks he knows that a millennial with one job must

be after a new one. Today s youngsters are thought to have little loyalty

towards their employers and to be prone to job-hop . Millennials (ie, those

born after about 1982) are indeed more likely to switch jobs than their older

colleagues. But that is more a result of how old they are than of the era they

were born in. In America at least, average job tenures have barely changed in

recent decades.

Data from America s Bureau of Labour Statistics show workers aged 25 and over

now spend a median of 5.1 years with their employers, slightly more than in

1983 (see chart). Job tenure has declined for the lower end of that age group,

but only slightly. Men between the ages of 25 and 34 now spend a median of 2.9

years with each employer, down from 3.2 years in 1983.

It is middle-aged men whose relationship with their employers has changed most

dramatically. Partly because of a collapse in the number of semi-skilled jobs

and the decline of labour unions, the median job tenure for men aged 45-54 in

America has fallen from 12.8 years in 1983 to 8.4. That decline has been offset

by women staying longer in their jobs and higher retirement ages, which is why

the overall numbers have barely changed.

American workers are also now less likely to move home to find new work (see

article). Fewer than 12% moved home last year, down from 20% in the 1950s. This

pattern is true of younger workers, too: only a fifth of Americans between the

ages of 25 and 35 moved last year; for past generations the fraction was closer

to a quarter.

One place where millennials probably are switching jobs more often is western

Europe. Data from the OECD, a think-tank, show that since 1992 in each of

France, Germany, Italy and Spain, the average job tenure for workers has

increased overall. But it has shortened for younger workers. However, it is far

from clear that this is by the young workers choice. Labour-market

restrictions in Europe have forced a growing share of workers into temporary

gigs . Over half of workers aged 15 to 24 in those four countries are on

fixed-term contracts.

Data on Britain, which has looser labour-market regulations than continental

Europe, tell a more complicated tale. OECD statistics show that average job

tenures have fallen for young Brits. But research from the Resolution

Foundation, another think-tank, finds that millennials are actually less likely

to leave jobs voluntarily than the previous generation. Britons are also moving

home less often. Between 2001 and 2016, the share of workers moving home to

change jobs fell from around 0.7% to 0.5%. The number of workers doing so for

work in Britain has risen again in recent years, but is still below its 2001

peak.

Some workers are indeed hopping from startup to startup every six months, or

working as quasi-freelancers for Uber. But they are the exceptions. A drastic

increase in job-switching rates would probably require a correspondingly

drastic increase in labour demand. Those who fret that millennials are fickle

may have too rosy a view of the labour market.