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Investors are cautiously returning to a fickle market
Feb 13th 2016
THE Valentine Day s special at Sharps Pixley, London s first high-street
bullion showroom, is a 115 ($166) rose dipped in gold. But what that special
someone would really want is the 27,000 kilobar , smaller than a slab of
chocolate but reassuringly weighty in this time of turmoil in financial
markets. Both have sold well since the shop opened last month, says Ross
Norman, the boss. Yet he is struck by how apologetic his British clients are
about buying gold. It suggests many are novices, gingerly placing their first
bets against the global economy.
They are not alone. From libertarians in America to Indian housewives, gold s
fans have helped push spot prices up sharply this year, defying the rout in
global commodity markets (although gold also defied the prior boom in
commodities see chart). In early trading on February 11th gold surged above
$1,200 an ounce, its highest level in more than eight months, amid a big
sell-off in global stockmarkets. Mr Norman notes that January rallies in the
past two years quickly petered out, partly for seasonal reasons: retail buying
in the biggest markets, India and China, starts with the Hindu Diwali festival
in late autumn and ends at this time of year with Chinese new year. He says the
rally is still tentative, though this year it has a bit more oomph.
Fear is one source of oomph. One Swiss-based bull likes to call gold a hedge
against ignorance , noting the myriad question-marks hanging over the global
economy. They include the strength of China s economy, the impact of falling
oil prices on emerging-market producers, the debt woes in America s shale-oil
industry and the fragility of global banks. What s more, the dollar which
rivals gold as a haven has also weakened recently.
Other factors have been on gold s side. Its recent rally has coincided with
falling oil prices and renewed fears of deflation that have pushed down
interest rates. Because gold offers no yield, the lower the returns offered by
alternative investments such as bonds, the more attractive it looks. The move
by big central banks to impose negative interest rates on commercial-bank
deposits makes gold an even more attractive store of value the shiny equivalent
of cash under the mattress.
Supply may also help the bulls case. The World Gold Council said on February
11th that the amount of gold mined in the fourth quarter of 2015 was down by
3%, its first quarterly drop since 2008. It expects the trend to continue as
cash-strapped mining firms trim investment.
The demand picture is more nuanced. Overall, global demand dipped slightly in
2015. But Indians vastly increased their holdings of gold jewellery in the
second half of last year, befitting one of the world s fastest-growing
economies. In China, shoppers bought fewer gold trinkets but more gold coins
and bars as investments, perhaps reflecting concerns about their falling
currency and stockmarket.
This year the latest data suggest there has been a net inflow of funds into
gold-related exchange-traded funds, which are investment vehicles that account
for about a tenth of global gold demand, says the World Gold Council s Juan
Carlos Artigas. He expects buying by central banks in the developing world,
which surged in the fourth quarter, to continue as they diversify their assets.
Sceptics among them Goldman Sachs, an investment bank nonetheless argue that
gold will fall for a fourth straight year in 2016, largely because of higher
interest rates in America. On February 10th Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal
Reserve, offered a downbeat assessment of the American economy in testimony to
Congress. Though she still left the door ajar to further rate rises,
stockmarkets and the dollar reacted negatively, while gold rallied. The more
pressing financial fears become, the higher it is likely to go.