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Foreign subsidiaries are proving a headache for big Spanish banks
Nov 21st 2015 | Madrid
DURING the financial crisis, it looked like a stroke of genius. Huge foreign
operations helped succour Spain s two biggest banks, Santander and BBVA. Last
year Santander boasted that it was one of the few big international banks not
to have suffered a single quarterly loss throughout the crisis. But
diversification cuts both ways: turmoil in emerging markets is now sapping
profits at Santander and BBVA just as their home market recovers.
Less than 30 years ago, Santander was a smallish Spanish retail bank. Now it is
a titan, operating in ten core countries, including emerging markets such as
Brazil and mature ones such as Britain. BBVA, too, boasts a big retail-banking
operation in multiple countries.
The problem is that at least one of each bank s biggest markets always seems to
be in trouble. This time, the weak link for Santander is Brazil, which accounts
for about a fifth of its profits. The country has sunk into recession one
reason why Santander s shares have fallen by about 20% since mid-July. BBVA
makes about 70% of its profits in emerging markets, including 40% from Mexico,
where BBVA owns Bancomer, the country s biggest bank. The Mexican economy is
not as wobbly as Brazil s, but estimates of growth have dropped over the past
year along with the oil price and the Mexican peso.
Moreover, although scale does bring benefits, managing such far-flung empires
is costly. Analysts at Exane BNP Paribas, a broker, estimate that currency
hedging, among other costs attributed to Santander s corporate centre , eat up
around a quarter of the profits made by its various units. BBVA, for its part,
hedges about 30-50% of earnings a year in advance.
Even so, BBVA posted its biggest-ever quarterly loss last month thanks mainly
to gyrating currencies. In July it raised its stake in Garanti, Turkey s
second-biggest private bank, from 25% to almost 40%. The additional slice came
relatively cheaply, owing to the depreciation of the lira. But accounting rules
obliged BBVA to write down its initial investment by 1.8 billion ($2 billion)
because of the lira s fall.
Sliding emerging-market currencies are one reason why BBVA s capital buffer
dropped to 9.8% in September. Santander and BBVA are now among the most weakly
capitalised banks in Europe, according to analysts at Barclays, a British
rival.
Spanish banks have weathered worse emerging-market crashes, including Argentina
s collapse in 2001. Brazil s troubles have been building slowly, giving
Santander plenty of time to prepare for a deep recession. It has spent much of
the past two years restructuring its Brazilian business and reducing exposure
to riskier consumer loans. Moreover, despite recent upheaval, the long-term
promise of emerging markets remains intact. As incomes rise and the middle
class grows, demand for credit and other banking products should swell in
places like Brazil, Mexico and Turkey.
That is just as well. Though the Spanish economy is growing strongly by
European standards, lending is not. Firms and households are still trying to
fix their finances after bingeing on debt, so the overall stock of loans is
falling. Ultra-low interest rates hinder the job of making money. Caixabank,
Spain s third-biggest bank by market value, has warned that competition to make
loans is leading to an unsustainable squeeze on margins. Diversification may
soon be lauded again.