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Germany's reliance on Russian gas is falling
Sep 26th 2014
GERMANY'S Energiewende, or energy transition, is an ambitious policy aiming to
move the country's electricity generation away from both nuclear and
fossil-fuel sources. More a slogan than a coherent plan, the term represents
the German government's desire to cut carbon emissions 70% from 1990 levels by
2040, while switching off all the country's nuclear-power plants by 2022. In
the long term that means generating more energy from renewable sources. But
more energy from dirty fossil fuels, such as coal and natural gas, will be
needed in the meantime. Yet so far this year, it seems that one of the policy's
unintended consequences has been to put cleaner gas-powered plants out of
business.
At first glance, the new policy should have encouraged the use of gas over
coal. But the German government's hasty decision in 2011 to close down eight
nuclear reactors in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in Japan left a gap in
the country's energy mix that was soon filled by coal. Over the next two years
the amount of electricity generated from the sooty fuel increased 11%; in
total, more than 45% of Germanfy's electricity supplies are now produced by
burning coal.
In contrast, the amount of energy generated from gas has fallen sharply. It
dropped by a third between 2011 and 2013, and so far this year by a further
24%. That seems strange given its relatively green credentials. Coal-fired
power stations emit twice the amount of carbon dioxide for each unit of
electricity generated that gas ones do, as well as producing fly ash that
releases 100 times as much radiation as a nuclear plant with the same
generating capacity would emit. The worrisome result of this has been to raise
greenhouse-gas emissions, but without any corresponding reduction in
electricity generation from nuclear sources.
That outcome is the exact opposite of the intentions of the original policy.
The main reason for this appears to be that the sharp fall in the price of
solar energy in recent years has undermined the economics of gas more than it
has coal. In Germany, as in America and Britain, there is a sustained peak in
electricity demand in the middle of the day, with consumption falling
overnight. Solar power neatly meets the noontime peak, often producing too much
at that point in the day, while at the same time making no contribution to
power demand at all overnight. Since gas-fired plants are easier to switch on
and off quickly than coal and nuclear ones, the gas plants used to be used to
fill any gaps at peak times. But with the larger peak now satisfied by the
growth of solar and other renewable-energy sources, gas plants are now
underemployed. In the past seven months, they have rarely passed 50% of their
capacity; many are now losing money for their owners.
With the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continuing to threaten the supply
of gas to Europe, reducing Germany's dependence on gas may seem a good idea.
Although talks between the European Union, Russia and Ukraine restarted in
Berlin on September 26th, to try and settle their ongoing dispute over gas
deliveries, agreement still seems far off. Germany has already annoyed the
Kremlin by re-selling some of its imported gas to Ukraine. Escalation of the
dispute and further trade restrictions remain a real threat.
If Germany only needs gas to generate electricity at the peaks of demand, could
it live without Russian sources? There are renewable-energy sources that can
cope with fluctuations in demand, such as biofuels, hydroelectricity and waste
incineration. But these sources may have already reached their potential.
Germany incinerates more waste than it produces, hydroelectric plants need the
right geography to be viable, and there are questions over the green
credentials of biofuels produced by intensive agriculture.
A better way of improving Germany's energy security would be to connect the
country's grid to more geopolitically reliable sources. Building better power
links to hydroelectric-rich Scandinavia and other European countries with spare
generating capacity has already been proposed, as has expanding import
facilities for liquefied natural gas, so as to boost flows of cheap gas from
America. However, all these projects will take time to complete, and with the
price of wholesale electricity so low in Germany at the moment, it is uncertain
whether it will be possible to arrange finance for these sort of projects in
the near future. But with tensions still so high between Europe and Russia, the
question remains whether Germany can afford to wait much longer.