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Could the Appetite For Chocolate Exceed the World's Supply?

By Christina Ng | ABC News Blogs

Imagine Halloween and Valentine's Day without chocolate. Imagine a world with

chocolate prices so high that not everyone could afford to indulge. Not a

bright future.

Though the world's demand for chocolate almost exceeds the ability of worn-out

plants to produce it, experts say it's not time to panic yet. But something

needs to be done.

"An improvement needs to be made to extend this supply chain," Robert Peck,

senior director of operations for the World Cocoa Foundation, told ABCNews.com.

"We have to start thinking, where is that increase in supply going to happen

and how are we going to get it?"

The demand for chocolate increases by about 2.5 to 3 percent each year, which

means about four million more tons of cocoa are needed every year.

Experts predict that by 2020, the demand for chocolate will increase by 25

percent. That's about five million metric tons of chocolate.

"Cocoa has been almost completely static," said Andrew Pederson, global

chocolate manager for Mars, Inc., the makers of M&Ms, Milky Way bars, Snickers

and other confections. "The crops don't perform well. They're aging pretty

badly. Farmers don't have a lot of tools and training."

Existing cocoa plants, mostly in tropical countries, are old and worn out, and

it is difficult to find space to plant more. Expansion of cropland could mean

deforestation.

"Cocoa is a crop that is fragile. Cocoa is a crop that is very picky where it

likes to grow," Peck said. "It needs tropical, humid conditions with rich soil.

There's not a lot of land availability with those conditions around the world."

Experts say newer and stronger cocoa plants need to be developed to keep up

with demand, which can take years.

"It takes time to influence the product of the tree," Peck said. "Results don't

happen overnight."

Peck called the chocolate industry a "very well-developed sector" and said the

issue of appetite overrunning ability is not a surprise. He said the industry

has been investing in and implementing programs and research for years to

combat the problem.

"From my very personal perspective, overnight there probably won't be a major

variance in chocolate prices for consumers," Peck said.

So, for now, chocolate lovers need not fret.

"We want to make sure people can continue loving it without any cares or

worries, except for having too much," Pederson said.