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Mark Long, newsfactor.com Mark Long, newsfactor.com Mon Dec 27, 5:00 pm ET
According to sources, Apple has boosted its iPhone global shipment target for
the first quarter of 2011 to between 20 million and 21 million units -- up from
19 million previously. Industry sources also told the Taiwan-based DigiTimes on
Monday that Apple intends to ship five to six million WCDMA iPhones to carriers
in North America and the Asia-Pacific region during the first three months of
next year.
The unconfirmed production boost would be substantially higher than the 15
million iPhone shipments that Wall Street analysts have predicted for the
fourth quarter of this year -- up from the 14.1 million units Apple shipped in
the three months through September. But demand would increase dramatically if
Apple terminates its U.S. exclusivity agreement with AT&T and launched a
CDMA-compatible iPhone to satisfy pent-up demand for such a device from rival
Verizon Wireless' 90 million subscribers.
"We believe that Apple's exclusive agreement with AT&T has limited demand for
the device," Piper Jaffray analysts Gene Munster, Michael Olson, and Andrew
Murphy noted earlier this month.
Embracing the Multi-Carrier Model
The United States is the only remaining country of the 89 nations in which the
iPhone is sold that involves an exclusive agreement, Munster, Olson and Murphy
observed. "The company has exhibited a clear trend toward the multi-carrier
model in recent months, and we believe [Apple] will complete the trend by
adding Verizon in the U.S. in the first half of 2011," they wrote.
Apple currently trails behind Nokia (36.6 percent) and Android (25.5 percent)
in the smartphone market with a 16.7 percent share worldwide, according to
Gartner. So launching the iPhone on Verizon's network early next year would
undoubtedly help Apple continue to grow even as Google's Android platform
becomes more widely available on a global basis.
Moreover, the iPhone's move to Verizon's network might even take some of the
wind out of Android's sails, at least in the lucrative U.S. smartphone market.
According to Gartner, Android phones accounted for 75 to 80 percent of the
smartphone trade at Verizon in the third quarter.
Piper Jaffray pointed to Apple's App Store as one of the iPhone maker's most
significant competitive advantages with 300,000 apps. Ultimately, however, the
firm's analysts "believe both Apple's iOS and Google's Android platforms will
be successful in the smartphone and tablet categories."
More Competition Ahead
Still, don't count out Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 just yet. "The Windows Phone
7 Marketplace reaching 4,000 apps two months after launch has to be one of the
most rapid ramp-ups in recent times," said Al Hilwa, director of applications
development software at IDC.
With both iPhone and Android app stores being much bigger, Microsoft has its
work cut out, Hilwa observed. "However, reaching this milestone faster than
Android, which took from October 2008 to March 2009 to reach about the same
level, is not bad," Hilwa said. "We can say that for a company that just a few
months ago was an also-ran in mobile, having 10 smartphones released in 30
countries is not a trivial achievement."
Hilwa said he won't be surprised if Microsoft has the third-largest app
portfolio in the industry by the middle of next year. "They have really strong
application development tools and a strong developer ecosystem from their PC
universe," Hilwa said. "This is a long-term battle that will be pivotal for
Microsoft's long-term relevance."
Research In Motion is also gearing up a new operating system that will enable
future BlackBerry devices and RIM's new PlayBook tablet to be highly
competitive. "International expansion appears to be one of their bright spots,"
Hilwa said. "The astounding thing is that they have been growing well for a
long line of quarters."