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Oct 18th 2010, 16:33 by The Economist online | PARIS
THE strike-weary French have grown used to infrequent trains, absent teachers,
undelivered post and unprinted newspapers. This is the routine whenever unions
hold a one-day strike, as they are due to (again) on Tuesday October 19th,
against the raising of the legal minimum retirement age from 60 to 62 years.
But the petrol shortages that have spread across the country in recent days,
prompting long queues at the pump, are a different matter. A week-old strike
now touches all 12 of France s refineries. With lorry drivers and school pupils
also staging improvised demonstrations, France is facing a hardening of
protests in what will be a crucial week in determining the fate of the pension
reform.
On October 18th President Nicolas Sarkozy called ministers to a crisis meeting
to work out a strategy for guaranteeing petrol supplies. France has begun to
tap its industrial stocks, and fuel supplies to the main Paris airports have
been resumed after a stoppage, although pilots were advised to refuel abroad
where possible. Yet despite the government s insistence that there would be no
petrol shortages, some 500-1,000 service stations are running low on stocks or
have run dry altogether, according to the Union of Independent Petrol
Importers, which supplies hypermarket stations.
Lorry drivers have joined the striking oil workers, organising slow-moving
convoys that block motorways, in what is known as operation snail . Pupils
from hundreds of lyc es, too, are disrupting schools, ahead of tomorrow's
strike, in which turnout is expected to be high (anything between 1.2m to 3.5m
took to the streets in the previous one-day strike last week). Fewer trains are
running even before the strike begins.
This week is crunch time for both sides. For those on strike, time is running
out to stop the pension-reform bill going through. It has already been passed
by the lower house of parliament, and the upper house is due to conclude its
voting this week. Leaders of the hardline unions, including the
communist-backed Conf d ration G n rale du Travail, the country s most
powerful, are under pressure from their grass-roots not to cave in. Some argue
that, even if the upper house approves the bill, protests should continue;
there are further legislative steps before the bill becomes law. There is
precedent for such a move: in 2006, student-led protests against a proposed
labour reform forced the government of the day to retreat even after it had
been signed into law.
For its part, Mr Sarkozy's government is hoping to keep a lid on protests and a
grip on petrol supplies until the end of the week. By then, not only should the
bill be passed by the Senate, but schools will have broken up for a ten-day
half-term. French unions like their holidays too much to organise strikes
during the school break. Mr Sarkozy has already made some concessions on the
margin, such as allowing more generous rules for women who take time out for
maternity leave. But he has repeatedly said that he will not budge on the
retirement age itself.
Much depends on whether organised protest turns into disorganised chaos. The
petrol shortages are a worrying sign. French governments, haunted by 1968, are
always nervous when students take to the streets. Though the pension reform
does not touch students, it has become a touchstone for general grievances and
a pretext for troublemakers to join in. Schoolchildren have been egged on by
some opposition Socialist leaders, including S gol ne Royal. One pupil was hit
in the eye by a police flash ball last week.There have been other sporadic
clashes with police.
Should the demonstrations fizzle out by the end of the week, amid popular
exasperation, the trick may well lie in finding a way for the unions to save
face. Should they spin out of control, however, Mr Sarkozy could find his plans
to reshuffle the government once pension reform is passed will have to be put
on hold.
jolyonwagg1 wrote:
Oct 18th 2010 8:06 GMT
If the French want to go ahead and completely bankrupt there own country
instead of serious reforms to there pensions and bloated public sector,then go
on ahead;but please do not ask the rest of Europe to bail you out when you are
bankrupt like the Greeks?
willstewart wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 9:13 GMT
The reforms DO touch French students (& possibly those in the wider EU).
These students will have to pay their parents' pensions for many extra years
when they could be still working. Someone should point out to the students that
they are on the wrong side!
Vive_chimie wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 9:30 GMT
Many students here (I live in France) claim that the proposed changes to the
retirement age will affect them more directly than the comment by willstewart
implies. These students reason as follows:
(1) There is currently high unemployment and it's very difficult for the young
to find a real job.
(2) If "the old" have to stay longer in the workforce than they do at present,
this will only reduce the number of jobs available for the young.
(3) Therefore this proposed pension reform will increase youth unemployment
even further.
I know that the economy is dynamic, that the number of jobs isn't fixed (lump
of labour fallacy, etc), but I have to admit that I have serious difficulties
persuading students to see that. Does anyone have good pedagogical examples to
which they could point?
Thanks in advance.
balloonair wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 9:38 GMT
The worst part about the Greek crisis is whenever a government fails or avoids
implementing even a mild cost reducing measure everyone screams about how Greek
style bankruptcy is imminent or at least unavoidable in the long term. Par for
the course that his discussion started similarly.
Maybe paying your parents' pension is an acceptable compromise if it means you
get to retire earlier as well. In either case, fear mongering over future
deficits is futile given that there are thousands of variables that could
change within the next 30 years, such as immigration, unexpected technology and
productivity boosts etc. Raising the retirement age somewhat would be prudent
but if it paralyses the whole country for weeks on end it might turn out to be
simply counter productive. Sometimes the cost of stopping inertia is greater
than the benefit.
Prakhar Singh wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 9:43 GMT
The people of France got it right! Forbes just came out with the top 10 cities
to live and own a business. None are in America. France and Germany top the
list. All ten cities are in countries with universal healthcare, high labor
representation, free higher education and over 50% tax rates on the wealthiest.
Sweetdigit wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 10:59 GMT
The joyful singing, the beating drums, the rush of excitement as the crowd
moves down the avenue and the feeling of belonging to the group of rebels
against an authoritarian government. Of course it's easy to understand why
people love protesting. It's so much better than the boring economics class for
students or the daily drudge for (nearly only government) workers. Though it is
selfish to others in the country, why forgo such great occasion to party?
For one, because most of the country agree on the fact that retirement age
should increase (53% per The Economist's sources), and after all, Sarkozy was
elected on a promise to push through precisely this kind of reform. In this
matter, the need for reform comes down to simple maths which I am sure the
party leaders are not oblivious to - but maybe this is just too good occasion
for them to finally hold power, which they might never see in their government
jobs.
Just to say that there are many factors which motivate people to go down to the
streets and protest. Some earnestly have a different assessment of the
situation than the government and think the reform will damage France. For
those people, I respect their right to go on peaceful protests. Others just
want to wreak havoc.
I just wish the voice of the silent majority could finally be heard.
Only holidays, or maybe the bad weather I see outside the window will douse
this fanfare.
ralphdazert wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 11:15 GMT
@ jolyonwagg1: hear hear!
If the French bankrupt their country by their stupid strikes, that's fine by
me, but don't expect Northern Europe to bay the bill. We have plenty of
problems ourselves. BUT, their is one big difference: the population in
Northern countries like Germany, Netherlands largely recognises the need to
take cuts. If times are bad, one can't hold on to luxuries of the past. But not
the French: just keep holding on to jobs for life, retirement at 50 and 4-day
weeks, French boys and girls! The real world won't wait for you!
willabytrumpton wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 11:37 GMT
I wonder for how long people have said "the French socio-political economic
model is unsustainable, nothing short of pure capitalism can save this country
from imminent ruin".
The French constantly pride themselves on going against the "anglo-saxon" model
(an apparently purely French concept). However the economy here works and it
remains one of the most productive countries in the world.
Sure it could work "better", but it works.
I am regularly surprised that it does, but then reality is always more
complicated than economic theory.
oommenz1 wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 11:41 GMT
Raising the age limit to 62 for retirement is the better way for reforms. The
citizens of France need to introspect this as the only best way for financial
discipline.
I vote for the reforms initiated by the govt. reforms are no doubt painfull.
But thats the best for the people of France.
NullAleph wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 12:10 GMT
The French state has never learned how to coopt or engage or even trust its own
people with any part of the political process, nor how to educate them to
economic literacy. As a result, political decadence is coupled with a profound
entitlement culture and stupefying economic ignorance.
When your parliament is a rubberstamp joke, your rulers are unelected
technocrats, and most levels of government are appointed out of reach of the
electorate, then you take to the streets because that's the only place you own.
Darion X wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 12:14 GMT
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The French constantly pride themselves on going against the "anglo-saxon" model
(an apparently purely French concept). However the economy here works and it
remains one of the most productive countries in the world.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hmm, as a German I must tell you that we know this term to ##-->
"anglo-saxon" model <--##.
And that it works, hmm, odd statement to me. I thought the UK had also big
problem and the number of youth unemployed is as far as I know also not low.
Now I don't want to defend the french and their strikes - I find them stupid
but this statement seemd odd to me nonetheless.
Darion X (Germany)
Tamas Czinege wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 12:27 GMT
Prankar Singh: I will take Forbes's opinion about German or French cities being
the World's best places to "live in and own a business" seriously when they
move their headquarters from the Fifth Avenue in Manhattan to Berlin or Paris.
As for the topic, it's incredible that 50 years after the post-war labour
shortages, unions have still that much power in France. It's simply
idiosyncratic, hence it cannot stay like that.
Swiss Reader wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 1:29 GMT
@Vive_chimie - a way to explain matters to your students may be to ask them
where the money for the pensions is supposed to come from. The answer is
obviously from the people who work, via "social charges". Those social charges
make labour more expensive and discourage employment, rather than helping young
people to find jobs.
Your students' reasoning would make sense if the money for pensions would be
paid by somebody else; however it is doubtful whether the Germans could be
persuaded to foot the bill...
MaxC75 wrote:
Oct 19th 2010 1:34 GMT
The problem here is not just pension reform - many of the people protesting are
actually protesting the excesses of the Sarkozy presidency: the Bettencourt/
Woerth scandal, the Kerviel/Soci t G n rale judgement, the attacks on the Rom
population, the Jean Sarkozy/EPAD scandal, the fiscal shield ("bouclier
fiscal") and more generally the Berlusconification of French politics.
This is quite worrying because it means that the protesters don't really know
what they want, apart from "out with Sarkozy", and the Government, even if it
wanted to, can't give them what they want. Therefore, which way out of this
crisis?