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By Kent Garber Kent Garber Tue Dec 8, 2:01 pm ET
For the next two weeks, until December 18, officials from more than 190
countries will be gathering in Copenhagen to write a new treaty on climate
change. For much of the year, there have been questions about whether the
conference would come together and, if so, what it could accomplish at a time
when much of the world is preoccupied with the global recession. In recent
weeks, however, many of the world's economic powerhouses and biggest polluters,
including the United States and China, have said they're serious about hashing
out an agreement. Of course, with so many countries attending, "success" can
mean different things to different people: Some want a political agreement;
others want a legally binding treaty. Here are five things that could determine
the outcome:
[See a slide show of the Top 5 Issues at Copenhagen.]
1. Developed Nations Vs. Developing Nations
Pretty much all the countries attending the talks agree that greenhouse gas
emissions are contributing to climate change. But few want to slash their
emissions without first ensuring that competing countries will do the same.
Developing countries want the United States and other developed nations to cut
emissions the most, since historically it's the industrialized world that's
responsible for most of the carbon pollution in the atmosphere. But China,
India, Brazil, and many others are growing rapidly, so the United States and
other developed countries argue that the developing world must get a handle on
its emissions, too.
2. Targets for Cutting Emissions
In Copenhagen, this tension will most likely play out in a numbers game. The
scientific community says industrialized countries need to cut their emissions
25 percent to 40 percent by 2020 to avoid the worst of climate change. The
European Union seems OK with that idea, but the United States has been
resistant. President Obama recently announced that he'd call for cutting U.S.
greenhouse emissions by about 17 percent. It has gotten a mixed response, with
many nations saying the United States needs to be much more aggressive.
Meanwhile, a few weeks ago, China announced that it will curb the "intensity"
of its emissions (relative to GDP) by 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020. That
was hailed as a sign that China is getting serious about climate change, but it
has also left some questions. Watch for countries in Copenhagen to press China
to be more specific about what its emissions goals mean.
[See photos from the Copenhagen climate conference.]
3. Assistance to Poor Countries
Many of the countries that will be hardest hit by climate change are poor. Some
are island nations. Some are prone to drought. Others have big coastlines and
are already seeing the impact of changing ocean chemistry and rising sea
levels. To respond to climate change, they say, they'll need Western help. A
lot of it. And that means money. But it's unclear right now just how much rich
countries will be willing to give poor countries (especially when government
treasuries aren't doing so well) in terms of cash and new technology. The World
Bank estimates that poor countries will need up to $100 billion a year to
respond to climate change. So far, Obama and Western countries have pledged $10
billion by 2012. Clearly, a lot of work remains to be done.
4. Carbon Trading
There's a general agreement--internationally, anyway--that the best way to
tackle emissions is by putting a price on carbon. That means a future involving
a busy, lucrative global carbon market, in which people buy and sell permits to
emit carbon. These global markets, not surprisingly, are complicated, and there
are a lot of tough issues to be worked out when it comes to making sure that
markets are honest and transparent. No one wants a repeat of the current
financial crisis. But many countries also don't want an international
regulatory body telling them how to run their economy.
5. Pollution Offsets
One way for countries to cut emissions is to switch to cleaner forms of energy
or to make their power plants more energy efficient. But there are other
options. For example, a power company, rather than trimming its own emissions
on site, might find it cheaper to pay a forest owner to plant a bunch of
carbon-trapping trees. In other words, the power company is "offsetting" its
pollution by paying someone else. As part of the Copenhagen talks, officials
will be considering which types of offset programs work and can actually be
enforced. (There's a big potential for fraud here.) Countries like Brazil and
Indonesia, for example, are pushing hard for a forest program that would
handsomely reward them for not cutting down their trees.
--Read 10 Things You Didn't Know About Copenhagen.
--See 10 Animals Threatened by Global Warming.
--See more coverage of the Copenhagen conference.