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August 12 2019
Review of: Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth?
by Alan Weisman -- (c) 2013
Actually heard about this book on the Collapse Chronicles [0] Youtube
channel. At 513 pages it was a bit of a brick and took several library
renewals to get through. But what a great, well-researched book Alan
Weisman [1] wrote; everyone should read it.
Essentially Countdown is a fairly comprehensive survey and analysis of
human overpopulation around the world, its consequences and the various
mitigation strategies employed to address it. There is a brief historical
review of our numbers and the natural forces that kept them in check,
namely disease, depredation, available energy. Only with the development
of the germ theory, antibiotics, vaccines, and of course the mass
utilization of fossil fuels did human populations significantly swell.
Stepping back, the author also addresses the ultimate impossibility of
endless growth and how technology is unlikely to help prop our numbers up
much longer, especially in the face of unstoppable climate change. Weisman
also points out that to-date there is no scalable replacement for our
rapidly depleting fossil fuels, which our global civilization currently
uses in massive amounts and has in large measure made the feeding of
almost 8 billion humans possible.
The issue of overpopulation was actually recognized early on, most
famously by Thomas Robert Malthus, an English economist (1766-1834),
more recently by Paul and Anne Ehrlich [2] ("The Population Bomb") and
Dennis and Donella Meadows [3] ("Limits to Growth"). All have also been
endlessly slammed by growth-oriented leaders and their economic theorists.
Weisman apparently met several times with the Ehrlich's as well as several
of their professional acquaintances while researching the book and gives
accounts of their work.
Lastly, Weisman includes some interesting history of the birth control
movement, which has a bit of a dark side in that it coincided with the
Eugenics [4] movement and several of it's early proponents were involved
in both, particularly Margaret Sanger [5], the founder of Planned
Parenthood. The author also looks at the push-back to birth control
efforts, particularly the Catholic Church and how it's dubious doctrine of
"papal infallibility" cemented its stance. Fortunately Weisman's research
finds many Catholics ignore the pope; in the US 98% of Catholic women
are making use of some form of birth control. Interestingly there has
been greater variation in religious opinion among followers of Islam
which lacks a central authority.
Countdown surveys many countries and regions and most get a chapter.
But there are many chapters, too many to include in this review, so
just a sampling follows.
Weisman, being Jewish, starts out looking at the state of Israel and
Palestine, both significantly over-populated, apparently intentionally.
Both orthodox Jews and Palestinians have been encouraged by their
community and/or political leaders to engage in what is referred to in
the book as a "war of the wombs", with the goal of overwhelming the other
side with shear numbers so as to gain numerical dominance of the region.
It hasn't gone well for either side, but the environment has been the
biggest loser with many species going extinct, pollution, and severe
habitat loss. The region is also under severe water stress. The water
desalination plants use a lot of energy and generate piles of salt that
can't be easily disposed of. Israel is also a critical stop-over for
Western Europe's largest bird migration; its collapse would be felt from
Africa to Northern Europe. As for mitigation, there doesn't appear to
be much effort on either side, though economic hardship tends to push
down on growth rates. There are many facets to the Israeli-Palestine
conflict but over-population is a rarely mentioned key driver.
China today is on a tear with it's Belt and Road [6] initiative, pouring
record amounts of concrete and in general using resources as if there
is no tomorrow, which may well be the case. Nonetheless, had China not
addressed their overpopulation they may well enduring endless famine
instead. The One Child policy was implemented shortly after Ehrlich's
"The Population Bomb" came out which apparently China's leaders took
very seriously. Being authoritarians, not much attention went to the
social aspects of the policy's implementation. Still, the need for to
address population growth was understood by most Chinese, many who had
suffered through famines and hardship. Weisman spends a bit of time
covering the actual design of the One Child policy which was actually
done by a pair of rocket scientists. As is well-known, there were many
instances of forced abortions, excessive fines and punishments lobbed
against violators. Most of the abuses seem to have been committed at
the local government level which has high levels of corruption. But
the policy was successful, so much so that it was initially relaxed,
then completely phased out. Most Chinese couples voluntarily choose
to have only one child. Unless they change their ways along the way,
China will peak in 2030 at 1.5 billion then begin rapidly declining;
the goal is around 700 million.
In the 1960s Thailand was on it's way to bursting at its seams. Women
were having 7 or more children. Mechai Viravaidya [7], an economist
tasked with improving Thailand's economic prospects quickly realized
that no plan would have any chance of succeeding without addressing the
country's rapid population growth. Mechai, a natural entertainer --
he would go on to host a TV show -- formulated a campaign that adeptly
leveraged the power of humor and basic marketing methods to break through
the social taboos concerning open sexual discussion to convince Thais
that smaller families where good for their health, wealth and the
country. Condoms were the main focus; he would tell jokes and make
balloon animals with them during his family planning presentations.
That Buddhism has no tenets specifically addressing family planning
or birth control likely helped. Nonetheless, having Buddhist monks
bless birth control pills helped reassure those concerned about sin.
Mechai's efforts also focused on incentivizing women to have fewer
kids via low interest loans encouraging their entrepreneurial spirits.
It was a huge success; Thailand's fertility rate is around 1.5, below
replacement, all via voluntary means.
In general, the success stories all have the following in common:
- a focus on empowering women via reproductive choice, education
and equal employment opportunity
- availability of affordable birth control methods
- availability of safe abortion services when birth control fails
- availability of affordable basic health services, particularly
those that reduce child mortality
Most stories throughout the book were more nuanced; some countries
initially made improvements only to slide later, some had cultures
that are seemingly immutable even when they know they have a problem.
Still others got their population growth under control only to replace
it with an even more intractable over-consumption problem, something
Weisman feels is just as important to the planet's state of overshoot:
- top 7% of global population consumes 50% of all resources
- bottom 50% of global population consumes 7% of all resources
Ultimately, even though 75% of fertile women in the developing world
are now using some form of family planning, the author feels we are
collectively heading for a population crash. The lack of meaningful
action to address global warming has baked in a minimum of 2 degrees
C warming within the next decade or so; that translates to a roughly
20% reduction in cereal crop yields at a time when an extra 1 billion
mouths expected. At current levels of food waste an extra 1 billion
humans would actually require a doubling of crop production, something
rather unlikely to happen. What is more plausible and what the UN has
recently called for, is a shift away from meat consumption. All told,
Weisman states meat production and consumption generates 50% of total
greenhouse gas emissions, absolutely huge figure if true; there seems
to be a good deal of debate on the exact amount [8].
And of course climate is only one of several planetary thresholds being
crossed. Losses in flora and fauna biodiversity, disruptions of the
nitrogen cycle, fresh water depletion and pollution are some others
that have already been crossed and may result in irreversible changes
to the living world. All are exasperated by our shear numbers which
continue to grow. Weisman points out that, though at current rates we
are projected to reach 10 billion by 2100, if everyone suddenly adopted a
one child policy that number would instead drop to 1.6 billion, the world
population level in 1900. That won't happen of course but it illustrates
how the math works; rates change non-linearly with the deviation from the
replacement rate. Incidentally Weisman feels an actual sustainable level
is around an even 1 billion, a number in line with most other scientist
that study such things. The author concludes that, one way or another,
our numbers will be coming down; either we do it or Nature will.
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Refs:
[0] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLXYur8DuVcARXbFhYs4ecg
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Weisman
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Meadows
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_eugenics
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Sanger
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechai_Viravaidya
[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_meat_production