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A deal on nuclear weapons will help more oil and gas to flow but slowly
Apr 4th 2015 | From the print edition
Timekeeper
IN IRAN S glory days in 1974, it pumped a record 6m barrels of oil a day (b/d).
Revolution, war, politicking, mismanagement and sanctions have all taken their
toll. Production is 2.8m now. If an outline deal on Iran s nuclear programme,
discussed this week, is firmed up, it should begin to reverse that trend by
opening new export markets and bringing in foreign investment to develop the
world s fourth-biggest oil reserves. The International Energy Agency,
representing oil-consuming countries, thinks that in the short term, Iran s
production could rise by 0.8m b/d. Global oil prices weakened this week on the
prospect of extra supply entering the market.
Hopes of a rapid rise in Iranian output may be optimistic. Though its geology
is friendly and production costs low, other problems abound. Global demand for
oil has slackened, supply from elsewhere is plentiful, Iran s oil industry in
poor shape, and its investment climate unfriendly.
The current sanctions regime, relaxed in stages since November 2013, is already
somewhat leaky. Iran exports over 1m b/d, mostly to Turkey, India, Japan, South
Korea and China, which are among the 20 countries beyond the reach of the
sanctions. But others benefit too: wily middlemen have long managed to evade
the sanctions, using ships with frequently-changing names, operating under
flags of convenience
But lifting sanctions generally takes longer than imposing them. Though
President Barack Obama can temporarily suspend America s curbs on Iran s
finances and exports, permanently ending sanctions would require the approval
of a highly suspicious Congress. Lifting the EU s sanctions would be easier. It
could end its ban on crude imports (which were 0.7m b/d before 2012), ease
restrictions on shipping insurance, and allow Iranian banks to use the SWIFT
financial-transactions system.
Low prices and a dip in demand from India mean that Iran has perhaps 30m
barrels in floating storage. By starting to run that down it could quickly
raise its exports by 0.3m b/d. But any further significant boost to foreign
sales should not be expected until late this year, says Amrita Sen of Energy
Aspects, a consulting firm.
The country has been working hard to prepare its fields for the lifting of
sanctions, which explains a recent rise in their capacity (see chart). But
getting production back anywhere near 1970s levels will be a long job. Ms Sen
says that some of the country s older fields are declining at an annual rate of
15%. They will need perhaps $30 billion a year spent on them, for a number of
years, just to stem the decline in productivity, let alone reverse it. Chinese
and Russian involvement does not make up for the absence of big Western
companies, which are currently looking for ways to cut their capital
expenditure, rather than increase it.
Attracting the Westerners back would require not just an end to sanctions, but
big changes to Iran s oil and gas laws. These do not allow foreign ownership,
but instead reward international oil companies for their investments with a
slice of the revenues, a scheme known as buy-backs . The Iranian authorities
say this regime already offers sufficient incentives, and will become even more
favourable. Most foreign companies will need more details and more reason to
trust the authorities before they are convinced.
Another obstacle is internal politics. Iran s technocrats have long tussled
with its radical Revolutionary Guards for control of the industry. This is not
just a matter of ideology: the militia s business empire includes companies
selling engineering services. They see foreigners as unwelcome competition. A
final difficulty is OPEC, the oil-exporters cartel, which is dominated by Iran
s arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, and its Sunni Muslim neighbours. They may seek
ways to prevent the detested Shias from gaining market share.
So the best long-term prospects may be not in oil, but in other hydrocarbons.
Iran has even richer reserves of gas than it does of oil, and these fields are
in a less parlous state. The EU yearns to lessen its dependence on Russian gas
imports. Why not from a newly approachable Iran?