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June 11 2008 | Filed Under Economics
Alban William Phillips was an economics professor who studied the relationship
between inflation and unemployment. Phillips examined economic data reflecting
wage inflation and unemployment rates in the United Kingdom. Tracking the data
on a curve over the course of a given business cycle revealed an inverse
relationship between the unemployment rate and wage inflation; wages increased
slowly when the unemployment rate was high and more rapidly when the
unemployment rate was low. Here we'll take a look at the Phillips curve and
examine how accurate the unemployment/wage relationship has proved to be over
time.
The Logic of the Phillips curve
Phillips' discovery appears to be intuitive. When unemployment is high, many
people are seeking jobs, so employers have no need to offer high wages. It's
another way of saying that high levels of unemployment result in low levels of
wage inflation. Likewise, the reverse would also seem to be intuitive. When
unemployment rates are low, there are fewer people seeking jobs. Employers
looking to hire need to raise wages in order to attract employees. (For more
insight, read Macroeconomic Analysis.)
The Basis of the Curve
Phillips developed the curve based on empirical evidence. He studied the
correlation between the unemployment rate and wage inflation in the United
Kingdom from 1861-1957 and reported the results in 1958. Economists in other
developed countries used Phillips' idea to conduct similar studies for their
own economies. The concept was initially validated and became widely accepted
during the 1960s.
The Impact on Policy in Developed Economies
The movement along the curve, with wages expanding more rapidly than the norm
for a given level of employment during periods of economic expansion and slower
than the norm during economic slowdowns, led to the idea that government policy
could be used to influence employment rates and the rate of inflation. By
implementing the right policies, governments hoped to achieve a permanent
balance between employment and inflation that would result in long-term
prosperity. (For related reading, see Peak-and-Trough Analysis.)
In order to achieve and maintain such a scenario, governments stimulate the
economy to reduce unemployment. This action leads to higher inflation. When
inflation reaches unacceptable levels, the government tightens fiscal policies,
which decreases inflation and increases unemployment. Ideally, the perfect
policy would result in an optimal balance of low rates of inflation and high
rates of employment. (To learn more about government policies, read What Is
Fiscal Policy?)
The Theory Disproved and Evolved
Economists Edmund Phillips and Milton Friedman presented a counter-theory. They
argued that employers and wage earners based their decisions on
inflation-adjusted purchasing power. Under this theory, wages rise or fall in
relation to the demand for labor.
In the 1970s, the outbreak of stagflation in many countries resulted in the
simultaneous occurrence of high levels of inflation and high levels of
unemployment, shattering the notion of an inverse relationship between these
two variables. Stagflation also seemed to validate the idea presented by
Phillips and Friedman, as wages rose in tandem with inflation whereas prior
theorists would have expected wages to drop as unemployment rose. (For more,
read Examining Stagflation.)
Today, the original Phillips curve is still used in short-term scenarios, with
the accepted wisdom being that government policymakers can manipulate the
economy only on a temporary basis. It is now often referred to as the
"short-term Phillips curve" or the "expectations augmented Phillips curve." The
reference to inflation augmentation is recognition that the curve shifts when
inflation rises.
This shift leads to a longer-term theory often referred to as either the
"long-run Phillips curve" or the non-accelerating rate of unemployment (NAIRU).
Under this theory, there is believed to be a rate of unemployment that occurs
in which inflation is stable.
For example, if unemployment is high and stays high for a long period of time
in conjunction with a high, but stable rate of inflation, the Phillips curve
shifts to reflect the rate of unemployment that "naturally" accompanies the
higher rate of inflation.
But even with the development of the long-term scenario, the Phillips curve
remains an imperfect model. Most economists agree with the validity of NAIRU,
but few believe that the economy can be pegged to a "natural" rate of
unemployment that is unchanging. The dynamics of modern economies also come
into play, with a variety of theories countering Phillips and Friedman because
monopolies and unions result in situations where workers have little or no
ability to influence wages. For example, a long-term union bargained contract
that sets wages at $12 per hour gives workers no ability to negotiate wages. If
they want the job, they accept the pay rate. Under such a scenario, the demand
for labor is irrelevant and has no impact on wages.
Conclusion
While the academic arguments and counter arguments rage back and forth, new
theories continue to be developed. Outside of academia, the empirical evidence
of employment and inflation challenges and confronts economies across the
globe, suggesting the proper blend of policies required to create and maintain
the ideal economy has not yet been determined.
by Lisa Smith