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Mon Oct 22, 2:42 PM ET
Energy poses one of the greatest threats facing humanity this century, the
world's leading academies of science warned Monday, highlighting the peril of
oil wars and climate change driven by addiction to fossil fuels.
Nations must provide power for the 1.6 billion people who live without
electricity and wean themselves off energy sources that stoke global warming
and geopolitical conflict, the scientists demanded.
"Making the transition to a sustainable energy future is one of the central
challenges humankind faces in this century," they said.
Their report, "Lighting the Way: Toward A Sustainable Energy Future," is
published by the InterAcademy Council, whose 15 members include the national
science academies of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Brazil, China
and India.
It was authored by a 15-member panel whose co-chaired was 1997 Nobel Physics
laureate Steven Chu of the United States.
"Overwhelming scientific evidence shows that current energy trends are
unsustainable," the report said bluntly.
Its authors sounded a special alarm over the surge in the building of
conventional coal-fired power plants in China and other developing countries,
as such infrastructure will doubtless be entrenched for decades to come.
"The substantial expansion of coal capacity that is now under way around the
world may pose the single greatest challenge to future efforts aimed at
stabilising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere," the report warned.
Managing the greenhouse-gas "footprint" of these plants while encouraging a
conversion to carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be a mighty technological
and economic challenge, it said.
CCS means piping off CO2 at a plant and then pumping it into geological
chambers deep underground, such as disused oilfields, rather than releasing it
into the atmosphere.
Many scientists view this pilot technology warily, waiting to be convinced that
CCS is safe, for a chamber breach could have potentially catastrophic
consequences for the climate system.
The report also appealed for a planet-wide drive in favour of energy efficiency
to reduce carbon emissions.
And it spoke loudly in favour of renewable energy, describing its potential as
"untapped" and offering "immense opportunities" for poor countries that are
rich in sunlight and wind but poor in cash to buy oil and gas.
Nuclear power, as a low-carbon resource, "can continue to make a significant
contribution to the world's energy portfolio in the future, but only if major
concerns related to capital cost, safety and weapons proliferation are
addressed," it cautioned.
Turning to biofuels, the scientist said that these sources hold "great
promise", but only through a switch to second-generation sources.
At present, feedstocks such as sugar cane and corn are the main source for
biofuels, which is having an effect on global food prices. A more promising,
but as yet uncommercialised, goal is using lignocellulose stocks from timber
chips and agricultural residues, which microbes digest into fuel.
Other dawning technologies, such as plug-in hybrid cars and hydrogen fuel cells
for energy storage, can make an important niche contribution, the scientists
said.
But they cautioned that the move to sustainable energy could only happen if
nations work together to free up the necessary financial resources and
expertise -- and setting a price for carbon to punish pollution and waste and
reward clean energy was a key part of the mix.
A 2006 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested world oil
consumption would rise by nearly 40 percent by 2030 as compared with 2005
levels, and CO2 emissions would increase by 50 percent over 2004 levels, under
a "business-as-usual" scenario.