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Analysis: Obama scores major victory on climate

By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer Liz Sidoti, Associated Press Writer 2

hrs 2 mins ago

WASHINGTON Facing a rare defeat, President Barack Obama put a big dose of

political capital on the line and scored a major victory just when he needed

one.

In private telephone conversations and last-minute public appeals, Obama leaned

heavily on House Democratic holdouts to support the first energy legislation

ever designed to curb global warming. The measure ended up passing in dramatic

fashion.

In the end, the president's furious lobbying coupled with a final push by

allies including former Vice President Al Gore carried much weight. To a

certain extent, the victory validated Obama's governing style and that could

bode well for his other top domestic priority, health care. He faces an even

more difficult test in shepherding the energy and climate legislation through

the Senate.

Obama recognizes as much.

"Now my call to every senator, as well as to every American, is this: We cannot

be afraid of the future. And we must not be prisoners of the past," Obama said

in his weekend Internet and radio address. He scrapped his talk on his original

topic, health care, and recorded the climate bill speech shortly after the

Democratic-controlled House backed the measure on a 219-212 vote late Friday.

It was a win Obama certainly needed. Congress was getting ready for a weeklong

holiday break and already health care was hanging in the balance. While his

popularity remains strong, Obama's overall ratings have slipped a bit. This

restive nation also is wary of some of his proposals, including deficit

spending as Obama pumps an enormous amount of money into the economy and

elsewhere.

The narrow House vote suggests potential trouble ahead with the Democratic

rank-and-file as the White House seeks to tackle more big-ticket issues in

Obama's first year in office; health care tops the list.

As Congress tackles that contentious issue, Obama's left flank is beating up

him and his allies over the effort to overhaul the costly and complex U.S.

medical system. Moderate Democrats are looking to forge compromises to pass a

measure; liberal critics are dug in over elements they want to see in any

legislation. Liberal groups are running ads against senators who won't publicly

support a government program to compete against private insurers.

Democrats have a comfortable House majority. But the climate legislation pitted

Democrats who represent East Coast states that have been cleaning up their act

against Democrats in the Mideast and other places that rely heavily on coal and

industry. They have a longer, more expensive path to meet requirements in the

measure.

Senate passage is far from certain, given that Democrats lack the 60 votes

needed to cut off a likely filibuster.

Obama's personal touch and another dose of his political capital will be

required again.

White House senior adviser David Axelrod said Sunday on ABC's "This Week" that

he didn't expect Senate action until the fall. "We're trying to solve a problem

that has languished for a decade," he said.

"I hope it won't pass the Senate," Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell

said on "Fox News Sunday," claiming the measure would lead to "significant

increases in electricity across America."

In the House, Obama was vindicated at least for now with his hands-off

approach to accomplishing his legislative goals. He prefers to provide broad

policy principles on his priorities, leaving the details to Congress.

Obama acknowledged Sunday that he had reservations about a provision that would

penalize trade partners that don't work to curb pollution. "At a time when the

economy worldwide is still deep in recession and we've seen a significant drop

in global trade, I think we have to be very careful about sending any

protectionist signals out there," he told a group of reporters.

Still, he called the bill "an extraordinary first step."

He temporarily may have put to rest concerns expressed publicly by

Republicans and privately by Democrats that he's trying to do too much: so

many policy changes in the midst of a recession and wars in Iraq and

Afghanistan.

Obama has had a string of early successes, the $787 billion economic stimulus

among them.

The climate bill victory was different. It was grander. It had international

consequences. It perhaps meant more to Obama than the others.

After ignoring global warming for decades, most leading nations now agree it's

an urgent danger. The U.S. public, too, has come to same conclusion in recent

years.

The House measure would, for the first time, limit the pollution blamed for

global warming while signaling a new commitment to combating global warming.

President George W. Bush gave the matter the short shrift.

Remaking the energy industry and curbing global warming have been hallmarks of

Obama's platform since he began his presidential campaign in 2007, if not

before that.

Sensing the legislation was in trouble early last week, the White House stepped

up its involvement.

First, Obama pressed the House to act during a news conference.

Then, the White House held a hastily arranged Rose Garden event Thursday that

raised the stakes. Obama pleaded for votes, acknowledged the changed world view

on the subject and stressed the opportunity at hand for the United States.

"The nation that leads in the creation of a clean energy economy will be the

nation that leads the 21st century global economy. Now is the time for the

United States of America to realize this as well. And now is the time for us to

lead," he said.

A day later, after a flurry of phone calls from Obama to recalcitrant

Democrats, the House spoke and said it agreed.

Will the Senate?