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Bio: ID physician, epidemiologist/statistician. Current President @ASIDANZ. Opinions my own. RT ≠endorsement
Location: Australia
Congratulations, Sharon - well deserved!
A thread for fellow statistical analysis plan nerds (warning: math ahead).
From Pfizer's protocol, vaccine efficacy will be estimated by the incidence rate ratio. A tutorial on how this corresponds to their planned beta-binomial analysis. 1/6
pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-09/C45910… pic.twitter.com/S8YuyRLW3K
pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-09/C45910…
Congratulations, @JulieASimpson50 - well deserved!
Snarky but useful list of common statistical/epidemiological issues twitter.com/MaartenvSmeden…
Baricitinib is a JAK inhibitor used for rheumatoid arthritis. Oddly, it blocks the effect of interferons (which generally have an antiviral effect) but the proposed mechanism in COVID is by reducing SARS2 uptake into cells. thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Baricitinib with remdesivir may improve time to recovery by another day. Will be important to see reported results, particularly by severity and how many also received steroids.
No, just mechanical ventilation I understand
"That has probably saved more lives than any one of us will in our clinical life."
The Victorian Chief Health Officer had an inspiring message for @unimelb med students when he sat down to speak with them this week..."Do #publichealth!" ❤️
#GlobalHealth #PopulationHealth pic.twitter.com/nYjSuopXGj
A poignant piece. RIP Elliot Dallen, a short life well lived. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Halting the Oxford vaccine trial doesn't mean it's not safe – it shows they're following the right process. The trial may resume soon following independent review of the reported adverse event. theconversation.com/halting-the-ox…
theconversation.com/halting-the-ox…
Yes, you're correct - that's an important point.
Serious AEs can be anything from completely unrelated (eg car accident in trial participant) to directly related (eg anaphylaxis).
Serious adverse event reported in phase 3 ChAdOx1 trial leading to pause in recruitment. Will be important to know nature, timing and relatedness of AE to vaccine. statnews.com/2020/09/08/ast…
statnews.com/2020/09/08/ast…
See first three metrics under "capacity" for a comparison: health.gov.au/resources/publ…
health.gov.au/resources/publ…
Because we use different model approaches to answer different questions. That's not to say that a compartmental model isn't useful - it's been invaluable - it's that a stochastic model was more appropriate for the question about thesholds. @j_mccaw
(that's overly simplistic, but hard to explain in 280 characters!)
They are different approaches to answer different questions. James McCaw and Jodie McVernon's models are primarily deterministic to look at the trajectory of transmission. Jason Thompson's model is an agent based model that is more useful to assess stochastic events.
Yes, there's a team at Uni of Melbourne and Uni of New England, and another team at DHHS working with them on scenarios for modelling.
It's not random - there are a variety of reasons why we sometimes can't find people - wrong phone number, not at the stated address.
Elvis only made it to 42.
About 80% are able to be contacted by phone. Some people don't pick up, and some have wrong numbers/no phone - these get a personal visit
There is the Elvis variation (PB, banana and bacon). If you dare try it, I'd suggest making an appointment with a cardiologist first. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peanut_bu….
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peanut_bu…
Actually, Victoria is completing almost all case interviews within 24h and contact tracing within 48h of notification, and reporting this publicly. health.gov.au/resources/publ…
health.gov.au/resources/publ…
Helpful study. This fad is finished in @WellingtonICU link.springer.com/article/10.100…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
I had always wondered if this might be useful in resource limited settings for septic shock. Apparently not.
There are metrics on case investigations and contact notification reported here
health.gov.au/resources/publ…
health.gov.au/resources/publ…
A few participants had pre-existing antibodies to Ad26 or Ad5, and vaccination resulted in antibodies to the vector
Russian Gamaleya vaccine: immunogenic in phase 1/2 studies (n=76). Interesting approach - two different adenovirus vectors Ad26 and Ad5. Neutralising antibodies and cell mediated responses demonstrated. thelancet.com/journals/lance…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Probably, as the first cases were reported at a market in Wuhan, but I don't know which animal brought it in.
Thanks, Nick - I'm only one of many ID physicians standing alongside our public health colleagues as we try our best to steer our way through this.
First publication of the Phase 1/2 Novovax nanoparticle #SARSCoV2 vaccine program
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… @NEJM Safe (small N), good antibody and CD4+ T cell response (no CD8+ data provided) pic.twitter.com/x76d5qpoix
I think I'd even qualify as a Satzke (non-lab) alumnus!
Exciting - this trial has been the most complicated I've ever been involved with! A tribute to Steve Webb, Derek Angus and a huge international team. twitter.com/Lennie333/stat…
Seems ID physicians are the same everywhere! @ASIDANZ @PaulSaxMD twitter.com/DGlaucomflecke…
In Victoria, policy regarding healthcare workers, including fit testing, is being reviewed by the Chief Medical Officer, Andrew Wilson. He is meeting regularly with a broad range of stakeholders including a HCW task force, a PPE task force, WorkSafe, unions and public health.
Depends on how much less sensitive - some rapid tests for flu have had sensitivity <50%. The new antigen tests look good, but I'd be a bit surprised if their performance is as good as they claim.
In addition to the stage of illness, other factors influencing viral load include sample quality and the site where the sample was taken. Not sure how comparable Ct values are between different test platforms. twitter.com/michaelmina_la…
Very informative article - thanks @hollyseale twitter.com/rebeccaivers/s…
If you need to leave home, please wear a face covering and observe physical distancing where possible. Please take care on the roads and watch out for emergency workers.
There are extensive power outages in Melbourne after this evening's storms. A reminder that despite restrictions, you can leave your home in an emergency and to seek medical care. @VictorianCHO