Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure

Created: 2022-04-29T20:03:33-05:00

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Meritocracy assumes the wealthiest are the most skilled and qualified workers.

Literature suggests the moderately capable but luckiest are the superwinners.

The wealthiest are only slightly above average in talent; while the most talented are regularly at the bottom.

Distribution of wealth

Distributing research funds uniformly through a population of researchers results in the most prosperity

How the simulator works

Agents are placed in a 2D scene and small circles float around the stage.

Green circles represent positive events.

Red circles represent negative events.

Circles travel randomly (brownian motion) around the stage.

When a circle crosses over an agent they experience the good or bad event.

A good event rolls a die. If the die rolls under the agent's competence their wealth doubles.

A bad event halves the agent's wealth unconditionally.