From: paj@uk.co.gec-mrc (Paul Johnson) Newsgroups: sci.skeptic,news.answers Subject: sci.skeptic: The Frequently Questioned Answers Message-ID: Date: 16 Dec 92 15:10:41 GMT Organization: GEC-Marconi Research Centre, Great Baddow, Essex Lines: 2158 Archive-name: skeptic-faq Last-modified: 92/12/16 Version: @(#)skeptic-faq.text 1.5 The Frequently Questioned Answers ================================= Introduction ============ This is the sci.skeptic FAQ. It is intended to provide a factual base for most of the commonly discussed topics on sci.skeptic. Unfortunately I don't have much time to do this in, and anyway a FAQ should be the Distilled Wisdom of the Net rather than just My Arrogant Opinion, so I invite submissions and let all the net experts out there fill in the details. Submissions from any point of view and on any sci.skeptic topic are welcomed, but please keep them short and to the point. The ideal submission is a short summary with one or two references to other literature. I have added comments in square brackets where I think more information is particularly needed, but don't let that stop you sending something else. In general it is not very useful to criticise areas of the FAQ as "not explaining it properly". If you want to see something changed then please write a submission which explains it better. Grammar and spelling corrections are always welcome though. If you are reading this with a newsreader and want to follow up on something, please copy the question to the subject line. This is more informative than a reference to the entire FAQ. Please mail submissions and comments to . If that bounces, try , which explicitly routes your email via the UK backbone. This is in no way an "official" FAQ. I am a computer scientist by profession and deeply skeptical of paranormal claims (although I may include some pro-paranormal arguments here). If anyone else with a less skeptical point of view wants to start a FAQ list, please feel free. I certainly can't stop you. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are not necessarily those of GEC. Other Topics ============ I would like to have some info on Astrology, Velikovsky and the Tunguska (sp?) event. Submissions on these matters are invited. Credits ======= Thanks to all the people who have sent me submissions and comments. There isn't enough room to thank everyone, but some of the more major contributors are listed here: York H. Dobyns provided carbon 14 dating information, notes about current psi researchers and other useful comments. Dendrochronology information came from . The questions "What are UFOs?" and "Are crop circles made by flying saucers?" were answered by Chris Rutkowski Ken Shirriff provided information on perpetual motion machines, Leidenfrost reference and the AIDS section. Robert Sheaffer sent information about Philip Klass and UFO abductions. The Ezekiel information comes from a posting by John Baskette . Contents ======== A `*' indicates a new or rewritten entry. A `+' indicates an altered entry. Background ---------- 0.1: What is sci.skeptic for? 0.2: What is sci.skeptic not for? 0.3: What is CSICOP? Whats their address? + 0.4: What is "Prometheus"? 0.5: Who are some prominent skeptics? + 0.6: Aren't all skeptics just closed-minded bigots? 0.7: Aren't all paranormalists just woolly-minded fools? 0.8: What is a "conspiracy theory"? The Scientific Method --------------------- 1.1: What is the scientific method? 1.2: What is the difference between a fact, a theory and a hypothesis? 1.3: Can science ever really prove anything? 1.4: If scientific theories keep changing, where is the Truth? 1.5: What evidence is needed for an extraordinary claim? 1.6: What is Occam's Razor? 1.7: Galileo was persecuted, just like researchers into today. 1.8: What is the "Experimenter effect". 1.9: How much fraud is there in science? * 1.9.1: Did Mendel fudge his results? * Psychic Powers -------------- 2.1: Is Uri Geller for real? * 2.2: I have had a psychic experience. + 2.3: What is "sensory leakage"? 2.4: Who are the main psi researchers? + 2.5: Does dowsing work? + 2.6: Could psi be inhibited by the presence of skeptics? UFOs/Flying Saucers ------------------- 3.1 What are UFOs? 3.1.1: Are UFOs alien spacecraft? 3.1.2: Are UFOs natural phenomena? 3.1.3: But isn't it possible that aliens are visiting Earth? 3.2: Is it true that the US government has a crashed flying saucer? (MJ-12)? + 3.3: What is "channeling"? 3.4: How can we test a channeller? 3.5: I am in telepathic contact with the aliens. 3.6: Some bozo has just posted a load of "teachings" from a UFO. What should I do? 3.7: Are crop circles made by flying saucers? 3.7.1: Are crop circles made by "vortices"? 3.7.2: Are crop circles made by hoaxers? 3.7.3: Are crop circles radioactive? 3.7.4: What about cellular changes in plants within crop circles? 3.8: Have people been abducted by UFOs? 3.9: What is causing the strange cattle deaths? * 3.10: What is the face on Mars? 3.11: Did Ezekiel See a Flying Saucer? Faith Healing and Alternative Therapies --------------------------------------- 4.1: Isn't western medicine reductionistic and alternatives holistic? + 4.2: What is a double-blind trial? What is a placebo? 4.3: Why should scientific criteria apply to alternative therapies? 4.4: What is homeopathy? + 4.5: What is aroma therapy? 4.6: What is reflexology? + 4.7: Does acupuncture work? 4.8: What about psychic surgery? 4.9: What is Crystal Healing? 4.10: Does religious healing work? + 4.11: What harm does it do anyway? Creation versus Evolution ------------------------- 5.1: Is the Bible evidence of anything? + 5.2: Could the Universe have been created old? 5.3: What about Carbon-14 dating? 5.4: What is "dendrochronology"? 5.5: What is evolution? Where do I find out more? 5.6: The second law of thermodynamics says.... 5.7: How could living organisms arise "by chance"? 5.8: But doesn't the human body seem to be well designed? 5.9: What about the thousands of scientists who have become Creationists? Fire-walking ----------- 6.1: Is fire-walking possible? 6.2: Can science explain fire-walking? New Age ------- 7.1: What do New Agers believe? 7.2: What is the Gaia hypothesis? 7.3: Was Nostradamus a prophet? 7.4: Does astrology work? * 7.4.1: Could astrology work by gravity? * 7.4.2: What is the `Mars Effect'? * Strange Machines: Free Energy and Anti-Gravity ---------------------------------------------- 8.1: Why don't electrical perpetul motion machines work? 8.2: Why don't magnetic perpetual motion machines work? 8.3: Why don't mechanical perpetual motion machines work? 8.4: Magnets can levitate. Where is the energy from? 8.5: But its been patented! 8.6: The oil companies are conspiring to suppress my invention 8.7: My machine gets its free energy from 8.8: Can gyroscopes neutralise gravity? 8.9: My prototype gets lighter when I turn it on. AIDS ---- 9.1: What about these theories on AIDS? 9.1.1: The Mainstream Theory 9.1.2: Strecker's CIA Theory 9.1.3: Duesberg's Risk-Group Theory ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Background ========== 0.1: What is sci.skeptic for? ----------------------------- [Did anyone save the Charter? PAJ] Sci.skeptic is for those who are skeptical about claims of the paranormal to meet with those who believe in the paranormal. In this way the paranormalists can expose their ideas to scientific scrutiny, and if there is anything in these ideas then the skeptics might learn something. However this is a very wide area, and some of the topics covered might be better kept in their own newsgroups. In particular the evolution vs. creation debate is best kept in talk.origins. General New Age discussions belong in talk.religion.newage. Strange "Heard it on the grapevine" stories belong on alt.folklore.urban, which discusses such things as vanishing hitchhikers and the Everlasting Lightbulb conspiracy. Serious conspiracy theories should be kept on alt.conspiracy, and theories about the assassination of President Kennedy should be kept on alt.conspiracy.jfk. CROSS-POSTING from these groups is NOT APPRECIATED by the majority of sci.skeptic readers. The discussion of a topic in this FAQ is not an attempt to have the final word on the subject. It is simply intended to answer a few common questions and provide a basis for discussion of common topics. 0.2: What is sci.skeptic not for? --------------------------------- The scope of sci.skeptic extends into any area where hard evidence can be obtained, but does not extend into speculation. So religious arguments about the existence of God are out of place here (take them to alt.atheism or talk.religion.*). On the other hand discussion about miracles is to be welcomed, since this is an issue where evidence can be obtained. Topics that have their own groups should be taken to the appropriate group. See the previous answer for a partial list. Also out of place are channelled messages from aliens. If your channelled message contains testable facts then post those. Otherwise we are simply not interested. Take it to alt.alien.visitors. The posting of large articles (>200 lines) is not a way to persuade people. See the section on "closed minded skeptics" below for some reasons for this. I suggest you summarise the article and offer to mail copies to anyone who is interested. Sci.skeptic is not an abuse group. There is a regrettable tendency for polite discussion here to degenerate into ad-hominem flames about who said what to whom and what they meant. PLEASE DO NOT FLAME. You won't convince anyone. Rather the opposite. 0.3: What is CSICOP? What is its address? ------------------------------------------ CSICOP stands for the "Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims Of the Paranormal". They publish a quarterly magazine called "The Skeptical Inquirer". Their address is: Skeptical Inquirer, Box 703, Buffalo, NY 14226-9973. Tel. 716-636-1425 voice, 716-636-1733 fax. Note that this is a new address. 0.4: What is "Prometheus"? -------------------------- Prometheus Books is a publisher specialising in skeptical books. Their address is: Prometheus Books 700 Amherst Street Buffalo, NY 14215-9918 0.5: Who are some prominent skeptics? ------------------------------------- James "The Amazing" Randi is a professional stage magician who spends much time and money debunking paranormal claims. He used to offer a reward of $100,000 to anyone who can demonstrate paranormal powers under controlled conditions, but has had to exhaust that fund to pay legal expenses in the series of lawsuits that have been brought against him since 1988. Currently, he can offer only a $10,000 promissory note. Anyone who wants to contribute to his defense can do so via: The James Randi Fund c/o Robert Steiner, CPA P.O. Box 659 El Cerrito, CA 94530 The lawsuit by Geller against Randi is still going on. There is a mailing list for updates on the situation, which originates from the account . [To subscribe, you should probably send mail to .] Martin Gardner is an author, mathematician and amateur stage magician who has written several books dealing with paranormal phenomena, including "Science: Good, Bad and Bogus" and "Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science". Philip J. Klass retired after thirty-five years as a Senior Editor of "Aviation Week and Space Technology" magazine, specializing in avionics. He is a founding fellow of CSICOP, and was named a Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). He has won numerous awards for his technical journalism. His principal books are: UFO Abductions, A Dangerous Game (Prometheus, 1988) UFOs, The Public Deceived (Prometheus, 1983) UFOs Explained (Random House, 1974) Susan Blackmore holds a Ph.D in parapsychology, but in the course of her Ph.D research she became increasingly disillusioned and is now highly skeptical of paranormal claims. Ray Hyman is a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon. He is one of the major external, skeptical critics of parapsychology. In 1986, he and parapsychologist Charles Honorton engaged in a detailed exchange about Honorton's ganzfeld experiments and statistical analysis of his results which was published in the Journal of Parapsychology. A collection of Hyman's work may be found in his book The Elusive Quarry: A Scientific Appraisal of Psychical Research, 1989, Prometheus. This includes "Proper Criticism", an influential piece on how skeptics should engage in criticism, and "'Cold Reading': How to Convince Strangers that You Know All About Them." James Alcock is a professor of psychology at York University in Toronto. He is the author of the books Parapsychology: Science or Magic?, 1981, Pergamon, and Science and Supernature: A Critical Appraisal of Parapsychology, 1990, Prometheus. Joe Nickell is a former private investigator, a magician, and an English instructor at the University of Kentucky. He is the author of numerous books on paranormal subjects, including Inquest on the Shroud of Turin, 1982, Prometheus. He specializes in investigating individual cases in great detail, but has recently done some more general work, critiquing crop circles, spontaneous human combustion, and psychic detectives. [I gather Isaac Asimov wrote on skeptical issues. Can someone tell me more? PAJ] [Can someone supply me with potted biographies and publication lists of these and other people? PAJ] 0.6: Aren't all skeptics just closed-minded bigots? --------------------------------------------------- People who have failed to convince skeptics often say "Well all skeptics are just closed-minded bigots who won't listen to me!". This is not true. Skeptics pay close attention to the evidence. If you have no evidence then you will get nowhere. Unfortunately life is short. Most of us have better things to do than investigate yet another bogus claim. Some paranormal topics, especially psi research and UFOlogy, produce vast quantities of low grade evidence. In the past people have investigated such evidence carefully, but it always seems to evaporate when anyone looks at it closely. Hence skeptics should be forgiven for not bothering to investigate yet another piece of low grade evidence before rejecting it. Of course there are some who substitute flaming and rhetoric for logical argument. We all lose our temper sometimes. 0.7: Aren't all paranormalists just woolly-minded fools? -------------------------------------------------------- No. Some just pick a belief and then search for evidence to support it. Others have had experiences which they find compelling evidence for belief. This includes channellers, palmists and dowsers. Shouting won't convince these people. The best tactic is to explain why you think they are wrong, and do it slowly and quietly. Of course, some of them are confidence tricksters out for a fast buck. But its best to assume innocence unless you can prove guilt. [Any paranormalists out there want to add something? PAJ] 0.8: What is a Conspiracy Theory? --------------------------------- A conspiracy theory is a belief that there is a large-scale conspiracy by those in power to mislead and/or control the rest of the world. Consider the following example: There is a conspiracy amongst the computer programmers to control the world. They are only allowing the public to have simple machines, while they control the really powerful ones. There is a computer in they call "The Beast". It has records about everyone. They use this information to manipulate the politicians and businessmen who ostensibly rule the world into doing their will. The Beast was prophesied in the Book of Revelation. Conspiracy theories divide the world into three groups. The Conspirators, the Investigators, and the Dupes. Conspirators have a vast secret. The Investigators have revealed parts of the conspiracy, but much is still secret. Investigators are always in great danger of being silenced by Conspirators. Dupes are just the rest of us. Often the Conspiritors show a mixture of incredible subtlety and stunning stupidity. Evidence produced by the Investigators is always either circumstantial or evaporates when looked at carefully. The theories can never be disproved, since any evidence to the contrary can be dismissed as having been planted by the Conspirators. If you spend any time or effort digging into the evidence produced by Investigators then you will be labelled a Conspirator yourself. Of course, nothing a Conspirator says can be believed. [Since this was first posted, Nick Silver has written to tell me that a friend of his was accosted by two guys who told her that the Beast computer is in Holland and that you can be saved by converting to their religion. They also added that every product bar code includes three 6 digits as frame markers, hence 666, the number of the beast. In fact this is not true, and even if it were it would not fulfill the prophecy in Revelation] The Scientific Method ===================== 1.1: What is the "scientific method"? ------------------------------------- The scientific method is the best way yet discovered for winnowing the truth from lies and delusion. The simple version looks something like this: 1: Observe some aspect of the universe. 2: Invent a theory which is consistent with what you have observed. 3: Use the theory to make predictions. 4: Test those predictions by experiments or further observations. 5: Modify the theory in the light of your results. 6: Go to step 3. This leaves out the co-operation between scientists in building theories, and the fact that it is impossible for every scientist to independently do every experiment to confirm every theory. Because life is short, scientists have to trust other scientists. So a scientist who claims to have done an experiment and obtained certain results will usually be believed, and most people will not bother to repeat the experiment. Experiments do get repeated as part of other experiments. Most scientific papers contain suggestions for other scientists to follow up. Usually the first step in doing this is to repeat the earlier work. So if a theory is the starting point for a significant amount of work then the initial experiments will get replicated a number of times. Some people talk about "Kuhnian paradigm shifts". This refers to the observed pattern of the slow extension of scientific knowledge with occasional sudden revolutions. This does happen, but it still follows the steps above. Many philosophers of science would argue that there is no such thing as *the* scientific method. 1.2: What is the difference between a fact, a theory and a hypothesis? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- In popular usage, a theory is just a vague and fuzzy sort of fact. But to a scientist a theory is a conceptual framework that *explains* existing facts and predicts new ones. For instance, today I saw the Sun rise. This is a fact. This fact is explained by the theory that the Earth is round and spins on its axis while orbiting the sun. This theory also explains other facts, such as the seasons and the phases of the moon, and allows me to make predictions about what will happen tomorrow. This means that in some ways the words "fact" and "theory" are interchangeable. The organisation of the solar system which I used as a simple example of a theory is normally considered to be a fact which is explained by Newton's theory of gravity. And so on. A hypothesis is a tentative theory which has not yet been tested. [Can anyone explain this better? PAJ] 1.3: Can science ever really prove anything? -------------------------------------------- Yes and no. It depends on what you mean by "prove". For instance, there is little doubt that an object thrown into the air will come back down (ignoring spacecraft for the moment). One could make a scientific observation that "Things fall down". I am about to throw a stone into the air. I use my observation of past events to predict that the stone will come back down. Wow - it did! But next time I throw a stone, it might not come down. It might hover, or go shooting off upwards. So not even this simple fact has been really proved. But you would have to be very perverse to claim that the next thrown stone will not come back down. So for ordinary everyday use, we can say that the theory is true. You can think of facts and theories (not just scientific ones, but ordinary everyday ones) as being on a scale of certainty. Up at the top end we have facts like "things fall down". Down at the bottom we have "the Earth is flat". In the middle we have "I will die of heart disease". Some scientific theories are nearer the top than others, but none of them ever actually reach it. Skepticism is usually directed at claims that contradict facts and theories that are very near the top of the scale. If you want to discuss ideas nearer the middle of the scale (that is, things about which there is real debate in the scientific community) then you would be better off asking on the appropriate specialist group. 1.4: If scientific theories keep changing, where is the Truth? -------------------------------------------------------------- In 1666 Isaac Newton proposed his theory of gravitation. This was one of the greatest intellectual feats of all time. The theory explained all the observed facts, and made predictions which were later tested and found to be correct within the accuracy of the instruments being used. As far as anyone could see, Newton's theory was the Truth. During the nineteenth century, more accurate instruments were used to test Newton's theory, and found some slight discrepancies (for instance, the orbit of Mercury wasn't quite right). Albert Einstein proposed his theories of Relativity, which explained the newly observed facts and made more predictions. Those predictions have now been tested and found to be correct within the accuracy of the instruments being used. As far as anyone can see, Einstein's theory is the Truth. So how can the Truth change? Well the answer is that it hasn't. The Universe is still the same as it ever was, and Newton's theory is as true as it ever was. If you take a course in physics today, you will be taught Newton's Laws. They can be used to make predictions, and those predictions are still correct. Only if you are dealing with things that move close to the speed of light do you need to use Einstein's theories. If you are working at ordinary speeds outside of very strong gravitational fields and use Einstein, you will get (almost) exactly the same answer as you would with Newton. It just takes longer because using Einstein involves rather more maths. One other note about truth: science does not make moral judgements. Anyone who tries to draw moral lessons from the laws of nature is on very dangerous ground. Evolution in particular seems to suffer from this. At one time or another it seems to have been used to justify Nazism, Communism, and every other -ism in between. These justifications are all completely bogus. Similarly, anyone who says "evolution theory is evil because it is used to support Communism" (or any other -ism) has also strayed from the path of Logic. 1.5: What evidence is needed for an extraordinary claim? -------------------------------------------------------- Extraordinary evidence. An extraordinary claim is one that contradicts a fact which is close to the top of the certainty scale discussed above. So if you are trying to contradict such a fact, you had better have facts available which are even higher up the certainty scale. 1.6: What is Occam's Razor? --------------------------- Ockham's Razor ("Occam" is a Latinised variant) is the principle proposed by William of Ockham in the fifteenth century that "Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate", which translates as "entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily". Various other rephrasings have been incorrectly attributed to him. In more modern terms, if you have two theories which both explain the observed facts then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along. See W.M. Thorburn, "The Myth of Occam's Razor," _Mind_ 27:345-353 (1918) for a detailed study of what Ockham actually wrote and what others wrote after him. The reason behind the razor is that for any given set of facts there are an infinite number of theories which could explain them. For instance, if you have a graph with four points in a line then the simplest theory which explains them is a linear relationship, but you can draw an infinite number of different curves which all pass through the four points. There is no evidence that the straight line is the right one, but it is the simplest possible solution. So you might as well use it until someone comes along with a point off the straight line. Also, if you have a few thousand points on the line and someone suggests that there is a point which is off the line, it's a pretty fair bet that they are wrong. A related rule which can be used to slice open conspiracy theories is Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity". See the Jargon File (edited by Eric Raymond) for more details. 1.7: Galileo was persecuted, just like researchers into today. ------------------------------------------------------------------ People putting forward extraordinary claims often refer to Galileo as an example of a great genius being persecuted by the establishment for heretical theories. They claim that the scientific establishment is afraid of being proved wrong, and hence is trying to suppress the truth. This is a classic conspiracy theory. The Conspirators are all those scientists who have bothered to point out flaws in the claims put forward by the researchers. The usual rejoinder to someone who says "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Galileo" is to say "And they also laughed at Koko the Clown". This may be a quotation from Carl Sagan. 1.8: What is the "Experimenter effect"? --------------------------------------- It is unconscious bias introduced into an experiment by the experimenter. It can occur in one of two ways: o Scientists doing experiments often have to look for small effects or differences between the things being experimented on. o Experiments require many samples to be treated in exactly the same way in order to get consistent results. Note that neither of these sources of bias require deliberate fraud. A classic example of the first kind of bias was the "N-ray", discovered early this century. Detecting them required the investigator to look for very faint flashes of light on a scintillator. Many scientists reported detecting these rays. They were fooling themselves. A classic example of the second kind of bias were the detailed investigations into the relationship between race and brain capacity in the last century. Skull capacity was measured by filling the empty skull with beans and then measuring the volume of beans. A significant difference in the results could be obtained by ensuring that the beans in some skulls were better settled than others. For more details on this story, read Stephen Jay Gould's "The Mismeasure of Man". For more detail see: T.X. Barber, "Pitfalls of Human Research", 1976. Robert Rosenthal, "Pygmalion on the Classroom". [These were recommended by a correspondant. Sorry I have no more information.] 1.9: How much fraud is there in science? ---------------------------------------- In its simplest form this question is unanswerable, since undetected fraud is by definition unmeasurable. Of course there are many known cases of fraud in science. Some use this to argue that all scientific findings (especially those they dislike) are worthless. This ignores the replication of results which is routinely undertaken by scientists. Any important result will be replicated many times by many different people. So an assertion that (for instance) scientists are lying about carbon-14 dating requires that a great many scientists are engaging in a conspiracy. See the previous question. In fact the existence of known and documented fraud is a good illustration of the self-correcting nature of science. It does not matter if a proportion of scientists are fraudsters because any important work they do will not be taken seriously without independant verification. Hence they must confine themselves to pedestrian work which no-one is much interested in, and obtain only the expected results. For anyone with the talent and ambition necessary to get a Ph.D this is not going to be an enjoyable career. Also, most scientists are idealists. They perceive beauty in scientific truth and see its discovery as their vocation. Without this most would have gone into something more lucrative. These arguments suggest that undetected fraud in science is both rare and unimportant. For more detail on more scientific frauds than you ever knew existed, see "False Prophets" by Alexander Koln. 1.9.1: Did Mendel fudge his results? ------------------------------------ Gregor Mendel was a 19th Century monk who discovered the laws of inheritance (dominant and recessive genes etc.). More recent analysis of his results suggest that they are "too good to be true". Mendelian inheritance involves the random selection of possible traits from parents, with particular probabilities of particular traits. It seems from Mendel's raw data that chance played a smaller part in his experiments than it should. This does not imply fraud on the part of Mendel. First, the experiments were not "blind" (see the questions about double blind experiments and the experimenter effect). Deciding whether a particular pea is wrinkled or not needs judgement, and this could bias Mendel's results towards the expected. This is an example of the "experimenter effect". Second, Mendel's Laws are only approximations. In fact it does turn out that in some cases inheritance is less random than his Laws state. Third, Mendel might have neglected to publish the results of `failed' experiments. It is interesting to note that all of his published work is concerned with characteristics which are controlled by single genes. He did not report any experiments with more complicated characteristics. Psychic Powers ============== 2.1: Is Uri Geller for real? ---------------------------- Randi has, through various demonstrations, cast doubt on Geller's claims of psychic powers. Geller has sued Randi. Skeptics are advised to exercise extreme caution in addressing this topic, given the pending litigation. Bay Area Skeptics, Tampa Bay Skeptics, and the Skeptics Society of Los Angeles have all been threatened with litigation over this matter, which could be expected to be extremely expensive and time-consuming, whatever the eventual outcome. 2.2: I have had a psychic experience. ------------------------------------- That is pretty remarkable. But before you post to the Net, consider:- * Could it just be coincidence? The human mind is good at remembering odd things but tends to forget ordinary things, such as premonitions that didn't happen. If psychic experiences happen to you on a regular basis then try writing down the premonitions when you have them and then comparing your record to later events. * If you think you have a mental link with someone you know, try a few tests with playing cards [Has anyone got a good protocol for this kind of thing? PAJ]. * If you are receiving messages from elsewhere (e.g. UFOs), ask for specific information which you can then check. A proof or counterexample of Fermat's Last Theorem (see the sci.math FAQ) for example [Has anyone got any better ones? PAJ] If you want to make a formal registration of your predictions, send mail to . 2.3: What is "Sensory Leakage"? ------------------------------- Sensory leakage is something that designers of tests for psi must be careful to guard against. Tests for psi use powerful statistical tests to search for faint traces of communication. Unfortunately the fact that communication has taken place does not prove that it was done by telepathy. It could have been through some more mundane form of signal. For instance one experiment involved a "sender" in one room with a stack of numbered cards (1-10) and a "receiver" in another room trying to guess what the next card was. The sender looked at a card and pressed a button to signal to the receiver. The receiver then tried to guess the number on the card. There was a definite correlation between the card numbers and the guesses. However the sender could signal the receiver by varying the delays between buzzes. When this channel of communication was removed, the effect disappeared. 2.4: Who are the main psi researchers? -------------------------------------- Targ and Puthoff spring to mind, but actually, Puthoff is no longer doing psi research (I don't have any idea what Targ is up to these days.) Granted, their SRI work is quite famous, but if we want to review the historical (rather than currently active) figures, you probably want to go back at least as far as the Rhines. Helmut Schmidt, a physicist who has been looking at PK, is still active at the Mind Science Foundation in Texas. (Sorry, I don't know a more specific address than that.) The Foundation for Research into the Nature of Man (FRNM), which is what Rhine's work at Duke eventually developed into, is still active near Duke. It is currently headed by K. Ramakrishna Rao. The Koestler Chair of Parapsychology at the University of Edinborough is, as far as I know, still active. The current incumbent is, I think, named Robert Morris; his main assistant is Deborah Delanoy. Roger Nelson is active in the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research center (PEAR) and occasionally posts to the net. Active workers in the field that I can think of currently include Dean Radin, who also posts to sci.skeptic as , Jessica Utts, and Ed May. The Parapsychological Association has a much larger roster than that, of course, but I'm not a member myself and don't have access to their membership roll. 2.5: Does dowsing work? ----------------------- Dowsing is the art of finding underground water by extra-sensory perception. Sometimes tools are used. The traditional one is a forked hazel stick. When held in the correct way this will twitch in response to small muscle movements in the back and shoulders. Another tool which has become popular in recent years is a pair of rods mounted in tubes which are held in each hand just in front of the user. Rod bent into tube. | V r------------------------------- || ^ || | || <- Tube Rod || || || When water (or something else) is dowsed, the rods turn towards each other. Like the forked hazel stick it amplifies small movements of the arm and shoulder muscles. Unfortunately careful tests of dowsers have revealed absolutely no ability to find water or anything else by extra-sensory perception. Dowsing success stories can be explained by noting that wherever you dig you will find water. You just have to dig deep enough. James Randi has tested more than 100 dowsers (don't know the actual count). He tells that only 2 tried to cheat. This suggests that dowsers are basically honest people. The Skeptical Inquirer has published a number of articles on dowsing. James Randi's "A Controlled Test of Dowsing" was in vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 16-20. Michael Martin's "A New Controlled Dowsing Experiment" was in vol. 8, pp. 138-140. Dick Smith's "Two Tests of Divining in Australia" was in vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 34-37. Randi's book Flim-Flam! has a section on dowsing. The main skeptical book about dowsing is Vogt, E.Z. and Hyman R. (1959, 2nd edition 1979) "Water witching USA". The University of Chicago Press. 260 pages. Available as a paperback. 2.6: Could psi be inhibited by the presence of skeptics? -------------------------------------------------------- Psychic researchers have noted something they call the "shyness effect" (or more grandly "psi-mediated experimenter effects"). This is invoked to explain the way in which many subjects' psychic powers seem to fade when exposed to careful scrutiny and proper controls. Often it is alleged that having a skeptic in the audience can prevent the delicate operation of psi. In its most extreme form this hypothesis becomes a "catch-22" which makes any results consistent with a psi hypothesis. This renders the hypothesis unfalsifieable and therefore unscientific. Less extreme forms might be testable. UFOs and Flying Saucers ======================= 3.1 What are UFOs? ------------------- UFOs are, simply, Unidentified Flying Objects, no more, no less. This means that if you are out one night and see a light moving in the sky and cannot immediately identify it as a certain star, planet or other object, then it is by definition a UFO. THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOU HAVE SEEN AN ALIEN SPACESHIP. A better question would be: 3.1.1 Are UFOs alien spacecraft? --------------------------------- Probably not. The vast majority of UFO reports, when investigated by competent researchers (and that is a problem all by itself), can be easily explained as natural or manmade objects misidentified for one reason or another. The actual percentage is around 95%. A very few reports are provable hoaxes. The remaining few percent (some skeptics argue that there are no remaining reports) are not explained at this time. Again, this does not mean that they are observations of alien spaceships. All we can say is that, given the information presently available, some cases don't appear to be stars, balloons, airplanes, aurorae. etc. Given a great deal more time and effort, many more could likely be identified. It's possible that the witness(es) were in error, or are very good liars. And the remaining few cases? Well, the best we can say, as true skeptics, is that we don't know what they were, but there is NO proof that they were alien spacecraft. 3.1.2 Are UFOs natural phenomena? ---------------------------------- Possibly. A number of theories have been proposed, suggesting that some UFOs are "plasmas" or variations of ball lightning or earthquake lights. Unfortunately, the theories seem to change to fit observed data, rather than predict the observations. Also, studies designed to support the theories have used newspaper articles and raw, unsifted UFO case lists for data, and therefore the studies do not appear to be completely unbiased. Perhaps time will tell. Until then it is safe to say that SOME UFOs are probably ball lightning or other rare natural phenomena. 3.1.3 But isn't it possible that aliens are visiting Earth? ------------------------------------------------------------ Yes. But it is also possible that there is an invisible snorg reading this over your shoulder right now. Basically, some astronomers (e.g. Carl Sagan) are convinced that there are other habitable planets in our galaxy, and that there may be some form of life on them. Assuming that parallel evolution occurred on these other planets, there MIGHT be intelligent life forms there. It is possible that some of these life forms could have an advanced civilization, and perhaps have achieved space travel. BUT - there is no proof that this is so. SETI programs such as those Carl Sagan is involved with are "listening" to other stars in the hope of detecting radio signals which might indicate intelligent life - kind of listening for the equivalent of "Watson, come here, I need you!", or "I love Lucy" in the infancy of our early communications. Such searches have been fruitless, so far. If there are aliens on distant planets, then it is possible that they might have found a way to travel between stars in their lifetimes. According to our present understanding of physics, this is not likely, given the vast distances between stars. Even travelling at the speed of light (which cannot be done), a round trip to the nearest star would take about ten years. This does not rule out interstellar ships, but it does make it seem unlikely that we are being visited. 3.2: Is it true that the US government has a crashed flying saucer (MJ-12)? --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The MJ-12 documents purportedly established that the U.S. government had established a secret organization of 12 people called MJ-12 or Majestic-12 to deal with UFOs. These 12 people were all conveniently dead at the time the documents were discovered. Klass proved that the documents are fakes. The Roswell Incident refers to an alleged UFO crash in Roswell, NM. This is also known as the "Roswell Incident". Philip Klass has also investigated this one and shown the reports to be bogus. One of the more notable items of "evidence" was a document "signed by the president". Klass showed that this signature was a photocopy of an existing presidential signature. [Can someone supply me with a proper section on this please? PAJ] All such allegations involve a conspiracy theory. Sometimes these conspiracy theories get very big indeed. One common one involves a treaty between the government and the saucer people whereby the government stays in power and the saucer people get to abduct humans for various gruesome purposes. 3.3: What is "channeling"? -------------------------- "Channeling" is remarkably similar to Spiritualism. The main difference is that the relatives "on the other side" are replaced by a wide variety of other beings. This means that the channeler does not have to worry about providing accurate information about people in the audience. The beings that channelers claim to speak for range from enlightened aliens to humans who lived thousands of years ago to discarnate intelligences who have never had bodies. 3.4: How can we test a channeler? --------------------------------- Some channelled entities are alleged to come from the distant past. They can be asked about events, climate and language in ways that can be checked. [I have read lists of questions which advanced beings should be able to answer (e.g. Proof or counterexample of Fermat's Last Theorem). Can someone suggest more? PAJ] 3.5: I am in telepathic contact with the aliens. ------------------------------------------------ See the earlier section on psychic experiences and then try testing your aliens to see if you get a specific answer. If you can come up with new facts which can be tested by scientists then you will be listened to. Otherwise you would do better on alt.alien.visitors. 3.6: Some bozo has just posted a load of "teachings" from a UFO. What ---------------------------------------------------------------------- should I do? ------------ You have several choices: * Ignore it. * Ask for evidence (see question 3.4 above). * Insult or flame the poster. This is a bad idea. 3.7: Are crop circles made by flying saucers? --------------------------------------------- There is no convincing evidence that crop circles or any other kind of UGM (Unusual Ground Markings) were made by aliens. There are some reports of lights being seen in and around crop circle sites, and a few videos showing objects flitting over fields. The lights are hardly proof, and the objects in the videos seem to be pieces of foil or paper being tossed about by the wind. In a deliberate attempt to test crop circle "experts", a crop circle was faked under the watchful eyes of the media. When cerealogists were called in, they proclaimed it genuine. 3.7.1: Are crop circles made by "vortices"? --------------------------------------------- Probably not. There are a number of meteorologists who believe that crop circle formations are created by rare natural forces such as "ionised plasma vortices". Basically, winds blowing across rolling hills sometimes form eddies which in some circumstances (that have never been quantified) become strong, downward spiralling drafts which lay down the crop. Cerealogists claim to have over two dozen witnesses to such events. Unfortunately, many more have said they have seen flying saucers do the same thing. Scientific articles arguing for the reality of these vortices have appeared regularly in the Journal of Meteorology. But its editor is the leading proponent of the theory, Dr. Terence Meaden. Winds can lay down crop in patches known as lodging. But geometric patterns in fields can hardly be attributable to natural phenomena. Meaden has changed his theory to first accomodate complex circles, ovals and even triangles (!), but now admits that most circles are hoaxes and the theory can only explain simpler patterns. 3.7.2: Are crop circles made by hoaxers? ----------------------------------------- Of course. Although most people have heard only of two, Doug Bower and Dave Chorley of England, many others have been caught, not only in Britain but in other countries such as Canada. Their methods range from inscribed circles with a pole and a length of rope to more complex systems involving chains, rollers, planks and measuring devices. And as a further note: just because you can't prove a crop circle was made by a hoaxer, you should not assume aliens were involved. Remember Occam's Razor (Section 1.6). 3.7.3: Are crop circles radioactive? -------------------------------------- This is a claim that has received wide circulation in UFO/cerealogy circles (pardon the pun). It is also untrue. Examination of the data from spectral analyses of soil taken from crop circles has shown that there were no readings above the normal background levels. The proponents of this claim are debating this, however. 3.7.4: What about cellular changes in plants within crop circles? ------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes, what about the changes? Although this is another claim that is widely circulated among ufologists and cerealogists, the evidence is simply not very good. A few photographs of alleged changes in the "crystalline structure" of wheat stems were published in some magazines and UFO publications. The method used was spagyrical analysis. This is a technique involving crystallization of the residue of organic material after harsh processing, invented three centuries ago and popularized by Sir Kenelm Digby. Digby is known for other wonderful inventions like condensation of sunlight and the development of sword salve (which you had to put on the weapon rather than on the wound, in order to cure the wound). The fact that this technique was tried at all casts serious doubts on the "researchers" involved. 3.8: Have people been abducted by UFOs? --------------------------------------- While the number of people who believe themselves to have been abducted by flying saucer aliens must number at least many thousands, not one of them has produced any physical evidence to establish the reality of their claim. On the contrary, a number of factors clearly point to a subjective basis for the "UFO abduction" phenomenon. Probably the strongest factor is that of the cultural dependence of such claims. Such claims were virtually unknown until the famous abduction story of Betty and Barney Hill received widespread publicity in the late 1960s. Also, the appearance and behavior of supposed UFO occupants varies greatly with location and year. UFO abduction claims are made much less frequently outside North America, especially in non-English-speaking countries, although foreign reports have started to catch up since the publication of Whitley Strieber's "Communion". Furthermore, the descriptions of supposed UFO aliens contain clear cultural dependencies; in North America large-headed grey aliens predominate, while in Britain abducting aliens are mostly tall, blond, and Nordic. Aliens that are claimed to steal sperm, eggs, and fetuses, or make scars or body implants on those supposedly abducted, were practically unknown before the publication of Budd Hopkins' books. This particularly alarming type of abduction seems to be quite rare outside North America. Clear "borrowings" from popular science fiction stories can be traced in certain major "