392 upvotes, 16 direct replies (showing 16)
View submission: The UnitedHealthcare Gunman Understands the Surveillance State
I read that 50% of all murders in the US go unsolved. So, this guy already had a 50/50 chance of getting away with it.
Comment by MonsieurReynard at 06/12/2024 at 22:42 UTC
146 upvotes, 3 direct replies
The vast majority of murders are of poor people, so they don’t get the full court press of the entire NYPD and federal enforcement and media coverage like when a CEO gets murdered.
Comment by BDR529forlyfe at 06/12/2024 at 22:24 UTC
527 upvotes, 11 direct replies
Those percentages can be different based on the socioeconomic/race status of the person who was murdered.
This guy was Uber rich and white. So I imagine they’ll be putting all the resources in finding the hero-gunman.
Comment by ICE0124 at 06/12/2024 at 22:32 UTC
26 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I would say they have even better odds because they planned it and wasn't stupid like a lot of murderers.
Comment by Brighteye at 06/12/2024 at 22:26 UTC
16 upvotes, 1 direct replies
High profile murders like this do not have a 50/50 rate I'm sure.
Comment by BigTintheBigD at 06/12/2024 at 23:01 UTC
4 upvotes, 0 direct replies
And aren’t most people killed by someone they know? I.e. their social circle gives a starting point to start investigating.
A “random” person with no obvious connection to the target gets lost in the sea of people.
Comment by NotAnotherEmpire at 06/12/2024 at 23:35 UTC
3 upvotes, 0 direct replies
And it's far higher when you cross off the easily solved ones. Estranged spouse with an insurance policy, bar fight that went to weapons, that sort of thing.
If someone isn't caught quickly, the odds plummet they'll even be arrested. And it's harder to prosecute.
Comment by Ferenczi_Dragoon at 06/12/2024 at 23:03 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Also of the solved they are usually solved by investigating contacts and family members, who are the usual suspects and the most likely culprits. Much harder to find someone unrelated in a hit like this.
Comment by BenjaBrownie at 07/12/2024 at 00:38 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Less than 2% of major crime is ever solved by police. Might be better than 50/50 odds.
Comment by Lizaderp at 07/12/2024 at 01:33 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Just like United's allowable
Comment by alsih2o at 07/12/2024 at 13:30 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
While the rate at which murders are solved or "cleared[1]" has been declining for decades, it has now dropped to slightly **below 50% in 2020**[2] - a new historic low. And several big cities, including Chicago, have seen the number of murder cases resulting in at least one arrest dip into the low to mid-30% range.
1: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/topic-pages/clearances
2: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/01/12/as-murders-spiked-police-solved-about-half-in-2020
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/29/1172775448/people-murder-unsolved-killings-record-high[3][4]
3: https://www.npr.org/2023/04/29/1172775448/people-murder-unsolved-killings-record-high
4: https://www.npr.org/2023/04/29/1172775448/people-murder-unsolved-killings-record-high
Comment by Heiminator at 07/12/2024 at 19:21 UTC
2 upvotes, 1 direct replies
That’s an insane statistic
For comparison: Here in Germany the clearance rate for murder was 92.3% in 2023.
Comment by makemeking706 at 06/12/2024 at 23:03 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Where are we? /r/mathmemes? That's not how that works.
Comment by PengoMaster at 06/12/2024 at 23:50 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
If they actually have a DNA sample though, that's not going to be great for him. Even if it just leads to some distant relative.
Comment by Fun-Dragonfly-4166 at 06/12/2024 at 23:14 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
most murders are poor gang bangers offing other poor gang bangers. The victims were people that the police were trying to arrest for awful things and they just got murdered first.
Comment by jawshoeaw at 07/12/2024 at 02:22 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
The number of murders carried out in full view of the public that go unsolved is probably more like 1%
Comment by ididntwantsalmon19 at 07/12/2024 at 17:46 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
This is assuming regular police effort being put in, which we know isn't the case since it's a rich white guy.
Also I'd have to imagine that completely random murders are solved at a lower rate. A lot of murders are by people that are very close to the victim which helps.