3 upvotes, 2 direct replies (showing 2)
View submission: i feel totally cynical about what's happening right now
Yes and in 2016 polls showed HRC was going to trounce DJT.
Who is going to answer this question with "no actually I think Ibrahim Kendi is a moron"?
What people say and what they do/think are different.
Comment by Fylla at 26/06/2020 at 14:43 UTC
3 upvotes, 1 direct replies
The polling average by the end of the campaign showed Clinton up by about 3 points nationally. She won by about 2 points nationally. That's as close to perfect as you get.
Hillary actually outperformed her polling numbers in solid blue states like California and Illinois, and solid red states. The problem is that Trump outperformed in swing states, the ones that actually matter under the electoral college system.
The problem wasn't really the polling - it was pretty close. It's that the *models* (like the dumbasses at HuffPo or any MSM org) were generally awful and didn't understand things like that states that are similar will swing in similar ways (538's excepted).
Comment by blue_dice at 25/06/2020 at 23:41 UTC
7 upvotes, 2 direct replies
Yes and in 2016 polls showed HRC was going to trounce DJT.
No they didn't, they said it was going to be close. 538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning based on the polling averages.