Two Exact Same Post Getting Different Upvotes on Dataisbeautiful, One was Hot Post after 2 hours. Is it Luck or Skill that Affects whether a Post is Successful? [OC]

https://i.redd.it/o3dn3od00uo21.png

created by pineapplezach on 28/03/2019 at 09:49 UTC

18242 upvotes, 89 top-level comments (showing 25)

Comments

Comment by [deleted] at 28/03/2019 at 09:51 UTC

4721 upvotes, 27 direct replies

Seeing the time of the post would be a great addition. Posting on Reddit and making it to Hot/Popular/Front Page is a matter of good content, good titling, and timing.

Comment by [deleted] at 28/03/2019 at 09:58 UTC

1092 upvotes, 7 direct replies

Timing is a big influence. You need to post such that folks see it first in their feed when they open their app. That’s social media marketing 101.

Comment by sabrow01 at 28/03/2019 at 11:13 UTC

1625 upvotes, 6 direct replies

I take serious offense to a post getting 118 upvotes being a “failure”. That would be a roaring success for me.

Comment by [deleted] at 28/03/2019 at 11:17 UTC

93 upvotes, 0 direct replies

[removed]

Comment by pineapplezach at 28/03/2019 at 10:34 UTC

99 upvotes, 11 direct replies

Do you guys have a similar experience? Please share, I am really curious whether this was a one-off thing for me or is it pretty common.

Comment by the_ravenant at 28/03/2019 at 11:04 UTC

188 upvotes, 4 direct replies

I posted the flag of Alexandria to r/vexillology with around 70 upvotes and someone else made it to top 50 posts of all time there with 10s of thousands of upvotes and gold and shit

Comment by pineapplezach at 28/03/2019 at 10:44 UTC

30 upvotes, 2 direct replies

I do think that other than timing, one big underlying factor was whether at that point of posting there were other posts that were getting many like and contending for hot post position. If there isn't any active post getting many likes, it would be a lot easier to make it to the hot post probably.

Comment by Halostar at 28/03/2019 at 10:56 UTC

23 upvotes, 1 direct replies

I'm confused. Why did you post the same thing twice in the same subreddit? Were these posts competing against each other? If so that would make a lot of sense as to why one failed.

Comment by failingstudent2 at 28/03/2019 at 10:01 UTC

62 upvotes, 2 direct replies

I like it. It really shows the power of posting on time, when USA is awake.

Comment by pineapplezach at 28/03/2019 at 09:52 UTC

23 upvotes, 3 direct replies

So i had two exact same posts with the same visualizations receiving completely different reception from the Reddit community in terms of upvotes. I wonder if it's luck that gets me there or skill? What do you guys think?

Source: My own reddit posts on this thread. The succeesful one is this: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/b0kkx7/most%5C_obese%5C_countries%5C_8%5C_out%5C_of%5C_10%5C_are/[1][2]

1: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/b0kkx7/most%5C_obese%5C_countries%5C_8%5C_out%5C_of%5C_10%5C_are/

2: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/b0kkx7/most_obese_countries_8_out_of_10_are/

The failed one was deleted. I recorded down the number of upvotes at every time interval and plotted a line chart.

Tool: Infogram

​

​

Comment by alanwashere2 at 28/03/2019 at 11:47 UTC

6 upvotes, 0 direct replies

A great deal of luck is involved. Even if you post the same exact comment in different parts of the thread you'll get different votes.

Comment by Domrial at 28/03/2019 at 15:26 UTC

7 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Is it Luck or Skill that Affects whether a Post is Successful? [OC]

This is ten percent luck, Twenty percent skill, Fifteen percent concentrated power of will, Five percent pleasure, Fifty percent pain, And a hundred percent reason to remember the name

Comment by ericabirdly at 28/03/2019 at 13:39 UTC

4 upvotes, 0 direct replies

I think we all know that reddit is infuriatingly arbitrary. When I post OC that I'm proud of it either gets ignored or shat all over.

BUT, when I post some bullshit that made me laugh at 3 am, I double my karma.

That being said I would LOVE to see some science behind this

Comment by OC-Bot at 28/03/2019 at 11:49 UTC

1 upvotes, 2 direct replies

Thank you for your Original Content[1], /u/pineapplezach!

1: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/wiki/index#wiki_what_counts_as_original_content_.28oc.29.3F

2: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/b6gt3v/two_exact_same_post_getting_different_upvotes_on/ejk8t3j/

3: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/search?q=author%3A%22pineapplezach%22+title%3AOC&sort=new&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on

4: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/wiki/index#wiki_remixing

5: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/b6gt3v/two_exact_same_post_getting_different_upvotes_on/ejk8t3j/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

^^OC-Bot v2.1.0 ^^| ^^Fork with my code[6] ^^| ^^How I Work[7]

6: https://github.com/zonination/oc-bot

7: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/wiki/flair#wiki_oc_flair

Comment by Payneshu at 28/03/2019 at 11:20 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Can we scrape the last 24 hrs worth of posts and see a brakedown like this with time slices?

Comment by HFXGeo at 28/03/2019 at 11:36 UTC

4 upvotes, 0 direct replies

The constant struggle in the forever quest for imaginary internet points ;)

Time of the day is most definitely a huge factor. As your post shows you need to hit a threshold of views in a certain period of time or the post just sits there dormant.

There’s no way to really quantitatively track it but “competition” is also a huge factor. If a post or two is trending from a sub it could help yours by driving extra traffic to the sub or hurt it by making yours overlooked. Not entirely sure how one could try to work out that effect to chart it.

I’ve had posts which I thought deserved much more attention than they got. I’ve never reposted to try to see if I could bump it up a bit though, I would have figured that reposts would do worse than originals but I should know better with Reddit, lol

Comment by GalaxyZeroOne at 28/03/2019 at 11:20 UTC

53 upvotes, 1 direct replies

Well obviously the one that got posted 2 seconds after the first is a repost and therefore got all the karma and attention.

Comment by 4_bit_forever at 28/03/2019 at 10:50 UTC

7 upvotes, 0 direct replies

It all depends on who is browsing NEW at the time you post. They determine what happens to your post.

Comment by GolfGorilla at 28/03/2019 at 11:43 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

What would be interesting to see is how much with every post the poster hones their skill and ability to earn karma.

Comment by alllllllrighty_then at 28/03/2019 at 12:07 UTC

3 upvotes, 1 direct replies

There has got to be some real data science going on behind this. Some top posts I can't imagine aren't ads in disguise (AirBnb and Uber seem particularly good at this), and my guess is they have really smart people figuring out what gets a post to the top. Interesting project for a data science major.

Comment by shad0w1432 at 28/03/2019 at 13:27 UTC

3 upvotes, 1 direct replies

Many people fail to realize or do not readily accept the fact that luck plays a huge part in all our lives, regardless of how hard we work. Shit just happens sometimes

Comment by songbolt at 28/03/2019 at 14:09 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

downvoting because you must be careful what you put in captions on figures: It is neither luck nor skill, yet you present these two as the only options.

Comment by [deleted] at 28/03/2019 at 15:00 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

this is a trash graph. It says nothing about the subreddit or the time of posting. It also doesnr say anythung about luck or skill

Comment by Devinology at 28/03/2019 at 21:33 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

It's pretty clear that it's luck. It's probably similar to other things that are popular or famous. The best content in any genre or medium rarely rises to the top - it's just what makes an impact at the right time, which is something nobody has been able to understand mathematically yet. If they could, they'd be incredibly famous and wealthy. It's been pretty much cracked in the music industry. Stars are created with this information. Rarely does anybody who is just plain good become famous.

I generally find the top rated comments on Reddit to be similar to clickbait. Just worthless nonsense that plays on our subconscious psychological tendencies. The best comments in my opinion don't get far because they are generally intellectually above the average user and people tend to pass by content that they don't understand or that requires too much time or thinking.

Comment by [deleted] at 28/03/2019 at 22:21 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

If I'm browsing new, and I see the same thing twice, I'm down voting the one that came second, because I think it's a repost. Reddit has too many variables that can't be controlled.