https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/1f1e46c/how_much_is_winning_classic_klondike_solitaire/
created by Inkshooter on 26/08/2024 at 02:59 UTC*
21 upvotes, 10 top-level comments (showing 10)
For such a popular game there's a frustrating lack of analysis about the game rules and probability that's easily available online.
Wikipedia says that the odds of winning a random deal in Solitaire is about 42% for a "skilled" player. I wouldn't call myself skilled but I'd say I win about one in 5 deals, and it mostly seems to come down to the luck of the draw.
Comment by Harbinger2001 at 26/08/2024 at 03:25 UTC
21 upvotes, 1 direct replies
My quick search says 82% to 92% of the deals are winnable. As to how much luck vs skill you need to find that winnable series of moves? Who knows.
Comment by BuckRusty at 26/08/2024 at 07:31 UTC
7 upvotes, 0 direct replies
How much is winning Klondike Solitaire based on skill as opposed to ~~luck~~ *meticulously unwinding your plays if you hit a dead end, and then picking different moves*?
Fixed that for you…
^(/s)
Comment by GremioIsDead at 26/08/2024 at 03:57 UTC
8 upvotes, 1 direct replies
I miss Freecell. Ah, the good old days of high school, yelling out Freecell game numbers in C++ class.
Comment by AGuyNamedJojo at 26/08/2024 at 07:09 UTC
3 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Supposing what you're saying is true, if you're only winning 1/5, which is 20 percent, and the random deal winrate is 42 percent, then there is an obvious skill gap.
If you were winning 42 percent +- a margin of error, then you can confidently say that the 58 percent you were losing were not deserved because they were a matter of bad draws.
edit: fat fingered 6 instead of 5.
Comment by 2daMooon at 26/08/2024 at 11:52 UTC
3 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I wouldn't call myself skilled but I'd say I win about one in 5 deals, and it mostly seems to come down to the luck of the draw.
I have no experience with this game, but in any games with luck it is very easy to blame the “unlucky” occurrence for the loss rather than looking back to see what you could have done differently to avoid that future “bad luck”.
If you are winning 20% of the time and a skilled player is wining 42% then this would seem to be that exact situation.
Comment by Littleblaze1 at 26/08/2024 at 03:22 UTC
9 upvotes, 1 direct replies
10% luck 20% skill
Comment by TMHarbingerIV at 26/08/2024 at 07:30 UTC
4 upvotes, 1 direct replies
1 Thing to realize to really improve your odds of winning, is to: >!Realize it is a decicion making game, and not a 'do any move that is available' game. For example, when you deal 3 cards at once, 2/3rds of the draw pile is unavailable to you, and you need to think ahead to unblock those aces and other key cards underneat there., if you just do any available move when they are first available you have no agency to dig up key cards down the line, and just random chance will decide if you can win it!<
Comment by jokeres at 26/08/2024 at 18:48 UTC
2 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Here, we're assuming a 3 card deal of Klondike, and also that the variant of Klondike is no limit through the deck. Part of the problem is that "Klondike Solitaire" is a family of Patience and has several variations. We can go through some permutations here, to try to put it into perspective.
So, 1-card no-limit Klondike Solitaire removes the impact of the 3-card draw (where playing a card there may "hide" a necessary card). It still has the element of cards being hidden in piles, but not in the draw. Winning this is usually in the 60-70% range (I have 2000+ plays of this variant logged, so I'm fairly certain that 70% is reasonable given that I wouldn't consider myself skilled and I'm above 60%).
When you add in the 3-card flop, the win percentage drops dramatically, but I could easily see 40%-50%+ as winnable. There will be impact from all the hidden information, but there is a fair amount of intuition that can be used after going through the first round of flops.
If you're playing a 3 times through the deck variant, I would imagine that the win rate drops again. However, the odds are still well more than the listed "1 in 30" in books detailing Klondike originally.
The problem here is the rules of Klondike aren't the same across all this data, and you haven't detailed the variation being played. 1 in 5 sounds like you could be playing better, but since the rules aren't known maybe that's perfectly reasonable given your ruleset.
Comment by beldaran1224 at 26/08/2024 at 15:24 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
If you mean out of every possible permutation of a deck, idk. But if you're playing apps and not irl, then probably all of them. I'm pretty sure Microsoft filters out unwinnable scenarios, and I'd imagine other apps do too.
Comment by fauroteat at 26/08/2024 at 05:26 UTC
-2 upvotes, 1 direct replies
1 in 42% is a level of math I don’t care to try to figure out.