5 upvotes, 2 direct replies (showing 2)
View submission: Ask Anything Wednesday - Engineering, Mathematics, Computer Science
Probably like ten years or so. Carbon nanotubes are what's called an enabling technology, meaning they make new things possible. These types of technologies follow this general pattern: academic research -> cutting edge applications -> general commercialization. Each phase takes ~20 years to mature.
If we look at lithium-ion batteries as an example, the initial research was done in the 1960's. It wasn't until the 1980's when they started getting commercialized for very niche applications. It took until the early 2000's for them to be used for smaller handhelds, and (knock on wood) I would say we're approaching the limit of what they can do. But each step requires innovation and builds on the supply lines of the previous step. Researchers have to synthesize everything manually until they can buy it. Commercialization requires economies of scale, but it's an enabling technology so someone is always willing to pay to be the first. Then the price slowly drops as it gets more and more commercialized and sees widespread use across industry. This also holds true for the Internet, computers, plastics, and many other things invented since WW2.
Carbon nanotubes began earnest development in the 90's. If you follow along, that means in the 2010's, they should have started to be used for niche applications (and they were/are). In 2030 the cost should be driven down enough to start to see more widespread use.
ETA: BTW, the 20 year thing is not at all a hard rule, and it might get busted to pieces in certain fields like programming or with AI. But for physical things, spinning up manufacturing requires a lot of capital and momentum.
Comment by LeepII at 26/06/2024 at 20:48 UTC
3 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I work at a place using CNT's to produce a sprayable solar panel. We have one in the office that lights up some LED's to prove it works. Flexible and about 3mm thick.
Comment by Gogyoo at 27/06/2024 at 11:57 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Reading the Mars Trilogy in the 90s, it's crazy to think it could become a reality. Not saying we're going to have a space elevator in 10 years though.