What are the odds that the Russia/Ukraine peace talks are pushing us further to WW3 than not?

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueAskReddit/comments/1ivq8mc/what_are_the_odds_that_the_russiaukraine_peace/

created by Dianaut on 22/02/2025 at 19:02 UTC

58 upvotes, 66 top-level comments (showing 25)

The US is siding with Russia, while Europe sides with Ukraine. This is creating tension between the US and Europe, as well as the US and Ukraine. I feel the peace talks combined with these tensions will end up escalating the conflict beyond Ukraine.

Besides, Russia has wanted to "claim victory" over Ukraine on February 24th... what are the odds?

Comments

Comment by AutoModerator at 22/02/2025 at 19:02 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

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Comment by DiscordianStooge at 22/02/2025 at 20:35 UTC

24 upvotes, 12 direct replies

I've been told for 3 years that WWIII was going to start any day now if America didn't give in to Putin. Why do you think it would start now that America is going to give in to Putin?

Comment by i_love_boobiez at 22/02/2025 at 19:16 UTC

18 upvotes, 16 direct replies

Yes

Oh wait I forgot what sub this is so I have to give a mindful comment.

I don't think the US is siding with Russia, I think it's just Trump being Trump this is his (stupid) negotiation style. Read his book it's a drag but very insightful to current events.

Comment by Jlchevz at 23/02/2025 at 03:15 UTC

4 upvotes, 1 direct replies

It’s not pushing us towards WWIII because the stakes aren’t that high except for Europe’s feeling of safety, Ukraine and Russia. That’s it. The US has (or had until a month ago) an interest to prevent Russia from engulfing more countries by force and blaming it on NATO, but other than that the world is pretty much the same.

Comment by DAmieba at 23/02/2025 at 05:16 UTC

2 upvotes, 3 direct replies

Giving an expansionist empire absolutely everything they want definitely won't make WW3 *less* likely. The main question is whether Europe finally wakes up and starts rearming. Poland seems to be, so I don't think WW3 is too likely to break out in Europe. Assuming Russia keeps the Ukrainian territory they've conquered so far, Russia will more than likely lick their wounds and invade again in 3-5 years. If Europe rearms enough to keep Ukraine alive we end up in the same boat we've been in for 3 years. If not, Russia likely invades Poland, and that could very well start WW3

Comment by Senior-Cantaloupe-69 at 23/02/2025 at 07:19 UTC

2 upvotes, 2 direct replies

I think we are actually seeing a de-escalation. It isn’t pretty and Trump’s messaging is terrible. But, the situation is untenable. The West bears some responsibility for this war and for keeping it going. Russian experts have said for decades Ukraine in NATO was a redline for Russia. We pushed anyway. Not defending Putin. But, we are back to an age of pragmatism after an extended period of being a lone super power.

The truth is, Ukraine cannot win. They are losing their best and brightest while Russia is losing conscripts. Don’t get me wrong, it’s terrible. But, there should’ve been real talks much sooner. There are no great outcomes. Again, aside from Trump’s terrible behavior and rhetoric.

But, before we totally vilify Trump, keep in mind Russia took over Crimea under Obama without the US batting an eye. So, neither side of the US political sphere can claim greatness here.

Comment by ReactionAble7945 at 22/02/2025 at 19:20 UTC*

3 upvotes, 5 direct replies

1. Russia should claim victory. They should say they have accomplished what they wanted to accomplish.

2. They should then offer to take all the people from Ukraine who want to go.

3. Then they need to withdraw from the Ukrainian territories leaving the borders which was original negotiated.

4. Ukraine (spelled European Union) needs to pay the people leaving and going to Russia a fair price for their land.

5. Russia wants Ukraine as a buffer. Based on what we have seen, this can not be part of the deal.

I don't think we can get to this point in negotiations quickly. Russia is going to refuse to withdraw. Ukraine shouldn't be happy giving up territory to an invader. Russia will not be happy with Ukraine being armed. EU has proven that they can exist without Russian oil, so....

Russia knows they can not win against the USA and EU and Japan and .... in a conventional war.

Comment by FearKeyserSoze at 23/02/2025 at 05:31 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

It is taking us farther away in my opinion. The most likely way WW3 would have happened is with Russia/China/Iran on one side. Irans cooked, China is going to get Taiwan, Russia is probably going to get the contested regions with Zelensky gone from Ukraine.

A NATO enforced no fly zone over Ukraine would be the only way to get to WW3 in my opinion.

Comment by sharkbomb at 23/02/2025 at 07:20 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

ww3 started when russia invaded georgia without repercussions. emboldened by later stealing crimea for a warm water port, russia then officially committed an act of war with bit farms, cambridge analytica, facebook, et al, per documents signed into law by barack obama. israel eliminating an entire country, nko sending troops into eastern europe, and china stealing the s china sea and poised to steal taiwan are other interesting features of this war that most are too dumb to pay attention to.

Comment by RedditModsEatsAss at 23/02/2025 at 09:08 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

As a European, the USA has become untrustworthy and barely an ally anymore.

So I am open to every European country acquiring their own nukes. As long as Russia and China is this powerful and untrustworthy and the US being unreliable, we need our own deterrents.

At this point, WWIII is not a question of if, but when.

Comment by Jess_me_nobody_else at 23/02/2025 at 09:08 UTC*

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

World war 3 was an information war, and it's drawing to a conclusion. There will be no nuclear war because nobody wants his country to be destroyed, which would be a certainty. Better to infect the Stupid half of the populace with lies. Those people don't know how to understand; they only know how to believe in things.

Trump has been spilling a stream of blatant lies and nobody even challenges him on it. It's an infection on the tree of life .

The position of democracy versus tyranny is the same as Ukraine versus Putin. Maybe the stupid people I grew up with in West Virginia are right: it's the Armageddon — the war of good and against evil to see who will take over humanity forever.

Or maybe we're just a situation comedy for the gods. They sit on their god sofa and and go, "Ahh Haah! Look at the monkeys!"

As for myself, all I can do is experience now, as it occurs and occurs. Y'see:

All I can do is vote and hope the good guys win.

...And smoke 94% pure THC every 10 minutes all day, starting 15 seconds after I wake up. And fuck every guy that walks in this room.

I don't feel like I'm part of it; I feel like I'm watching a Greek tragedy.

Comment by anonymous_matt at 23/02/2025 at 10:28 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

The chaos resulting from Trumps presidency is what might be bringing us closer to ww3. The Russia/Ukrainian "peace talks" are a minor issue in comparison.

Comment by DooficusIdjit at 23/02/2025 at 11:59 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Ukraine isn’t the trigger for ww3. Russia can’t sustain a war in Ukraine, let alone a multi-front war. Taiwan will be the trigger for ww3. China has been preparing for a large war for a decade. They’re gonna do it, it’s just a matter of when, and who will join them.

Best thing to do is continue the previous admin’s policy of weakening Russia so they can’t be an effective ally with China, and to make Ukraine a fortified long range missile stronghold that can stop China from using Russia to move a war machine West. Trump’s shortsighted bullshit is going to make China’s attack far more complicated, especially if he lets Russia get back on their feet.

Comment by ShowMeYourPapers at 23/02/2025 at 14:48 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Trump's and Musk's plan is extortion, with a compliant military that will absolutely take Greenland, setting the USA as an adversary of some of Europe.

That extortion extends to Ukraine, threatening to switch off Starlink, with Ukraine forced to negotiate away its minerals (to Musk, who invested millions of dollars in Trump's campaign), and its territory already under Russian control.

Russia will continue to infiltrate Europe using his agents (Musk, Trump, Farage) to push politics to the far right in Germany, thus dividing the German/French domination of the EU. See also Reform in the UK, and National Front in France.

Poland and the Baltic states will be next, then Finland: invaded by Russia. War will depend on how successful Russia is in taking back its Soviet era territories, and how compliant the rest of Europe is. I believe the crucial countries are France, Germany, and UK. Europe can't take on Russia without each other.

USA won't be involved because it'll be playing the annexation game itself, as will China. Russia, USA, and China won't step on each others' toes.

Also expect a Mediterranean sideshow with Turkey attempting to take Greek territory.

Comment by Maximum_Error3083 at 23/02/2025 at 14:49 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Trump is trying to create pressure on Ukraine to come to the negotiating table. By having unilateral talks without them it raises the fear that Ukraine will get shortchanged or cut out of the deal making process, which (if successful) may incentivize it to offer proposals beyond continuing to fight.

No idea if it will work but it’s not hard to see that’s what’s going on.

Comment by PigeonsArePopular at 23/02/2025 at 14:56 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

You have to do some galaxy brain level mental gymnastic to imagine the conclusion of a proxy war between nuclear powers somehow makes world war more likely, rather than less.

Come on

Comment by Wonderlostdownrhole at 23/02/2025 at 17:35 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

I know that our allies are not just going to sit there quietly while we hand Russia Ukraine on a platter. That may lead to the other NATO members taking up arms and if that happens the US will need to step up or admit we have let the president sell out our country to Putin. Hopefully it won't come to that but Trump is a moron and I doubt he understands the gravity of his actions.

Comment by IMHO_grim at 23/02/2025 at 17:41 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

First, some context.

When I walk into a certain building on base, there is a digital countdown (720 something days) for anticipated war in the Pacific.

There was a point years ago as we began talks about preparing for war in the late 2020’s. It has shaped everything the military has focused on for a long time.

Back then it looked like a two front peer fight like WW2. My spidey sense went wild when the Ukraine war started, fearing that was the start. Since then we have watched the Russians lose their army, Black Sea navy, Mediterranean base, and economy. It’s looked great.

Then came Trump. He’s now capitulating to Russia (while they are on a war economy) and alienating our allies. If we back down and the EU goes it alone, that could embolden a direct clash. It will also leave us with less support for any war in the Pacific and could be a signal to China.

We were on a safer path no matter what the MAGA base believed. Now, it’s looking pretty sketchy for the next 4 years.

Comment by Ok-Condition-6932 at 23/02/2025 at 17:53 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

No, they are not.

We have been on the ladder of escalation and there is almost no getting off.

Everyone that supports Ukraine pretty much wants only victory. No concessions. No deal. No losing.

This happens all the time throughout human history. It's *obvious* childlike logic.

Let's use a real world example so some can gain some understanding.

Peral harbor:

While there were people that knew better, the prevailing opinion amongst the Japanese was that "*those fat, privileged, lazy Americans will go crying home and want nothing to do with war if we deal a devastating blow and give them a taste*"

The only way off the ladder of escalation is when someone is willing to accept terms they don't like.

Just to be clear, I have no problem with supporting Ukraine. It royally pisses me off that people do not want peace and think they are good people. See THAT is exactly why we humans keep doing this. We always prefer to think we are right before we give an inch of compromise.

It doesn't matter which side has the moral high ground, or is in the right. Both sides always think it's themselves.

TLDR: you're an idiot if you think punching a Russian in the face is how you get peace and avoid world War 3. Just admit you'd rather nuke the planet than look your enemy in the eye.

Comment by Rajah7 at 23/02/2025 at 17:55 UTC

1 upvotes, 1 direct replies

The Big tRUMP admires Dictators, and he intends to be one from now on, so now the USA is no longer a democracy, but a Dictatorship under the rule of tRUMP, so get used to it.

Comment by TheVelvetNo at 23/02/2025 at 18:03 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Trump will torpedo these negotiations on purpose, claim this proves Ukraine is the problem, and then either arm Russia or send American troops to cops out Ukraine, handing the country to Russia. Russia will then size more territory with US support.

The guy's every action for almost a decade has been exactly what Russia would want. He is clearly working for/with them and always has been. If this was a serious country, he would have been tried for treason already.

Comment by ilcuzzo1 at 23/02/2025 at 18:54 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

No. If you listen to Mearsheimer (political scientist) and Sachs (economist), they make compelling arguments that Russia is not on an expansionist tear. Russia will not tolerate Ukraine entering NATO. That is what this is largely about. Trump could reach an agreement with putin that sees Ukraine lose crimea and the 4 eastern oblasks. Besides, Russia is winning. They have the upper hand in negotiations, and neither side would use nukes unless their political system was about to be eradicated. Neither the US nor Russia are in that situation.

Comment by Dave_A480 at 24/02/2025 at 00:19 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

For there to be a 'World War 3' there would have to be 2 sides representing relatively equal portions of the world's military power.

Trump is being an idiot - he hates Zelinsky because Zelinsky wouldn't help him frame Joe Biden for bribery & the botched framing attempt got him impeached the 1st time....

But the US is not going to ally with Russia. And Russia has the conventional military capabilities of 1990-vintage Iraq.

Which means that any prospect for a greater European war is 'Russia getting it's teeth kicked in by multiple western nations' (of which the US may or may not be a part - since Trump seems to be more concerned with Mexicans illegally looking for jobs than actual threats to the US)....

A 2nd Crimean War - not a 3rd World War.

Comment by satyvakta at 24/02/2025 at 00:53 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

WW3, in the sense of nuclear Armageddon, would require a conflict between at least two of Russia, China, and the US. The three of them deciding peacefully how to carve up the world into three empires would involve a lot of war, but they would be a series of short brutal ordinary wars rather than one big world war.

Comment by New_Kiwi_8174 at 24/02/2025 at 01:37 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

I fear the US taking an isolationist turn and not upholding it's agreements will push the world into a new nuclear arms race. The non-proliferation treaties aren't worth anything now.