52 upvotes, 2 direct replies (showing 2)
A sales based tax system is incredibly volatile. If people are suddenly feeling uneasy about the economy and decide to start saving more and spending less, that is a huge swing in what the state had projected its future revenue to be.
Comment by scrufflesthebear at 02/02/2025 at 19:23 UTC
10 upvotes, 0 direct replies
WA state sales tax revenue did decline during the great recession, but since then it's grown[1] pretty dramatically. The state's 4 year budget forecast shows steadily increasing revenues, the issue that's creating the deficit is rising costs from programs that have already been written into law. My sense is that it's not easy to accurately forecast what a new government program will cost many years into the future.
Comment by SandySultanas at 02/02/2025 at 18:31 UTC
19 upvotes, 2 direct replies
No the state just has a spending problem. The state has grown tax revenues ~8% year after year after year.
From 17B in 2014 to 33B in 2023. https://dor.wa.gov/about/statistics-reports/tax-statistics
If now suddenly the revenue is a few tens of millions lower than expected (but still growing overall), imo thats a spending problem not a problem with taxes.