created by Little_Study_57 on 01/02/2025 at 20:26 UTC
425 upvotes, 90 top-level comments (showing 25)
In such a situation, to what extent could we expect the military to act based on independent judgment rather than strictly following orders? Would their response prioritize the well-being of American citizens, or would self-preservation take precedence?
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1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
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Comment by _mattyjoe at 02/02/2025 at 03:41 UTC
507 upvotes, 21 direct replies
I had engaged with people in discussions about this in the time after Trump was elected and before inauguration. Many of them are convinced that service members / officers would remember their oath to the Constitution and not obey unlawful orders.
I’m not so sure about that, and the more this administration is taking shape, the more doubtful I am.
The propaganda and the brainwashing by the right is unfortunately so deeply ingrained, I’m pretty sure they’d carry out quite a lot of orders against the American people while believing it’s in the name of “National Security.”
They will be lied to any which way to manipulate them into doing this, and they’re going to comply.
Comment by Cid_Darkwing at 02/02/2025 at 04:02 UTC
93 upvotes, 5 direct replies
Chances are what happens is the first unit involved has someone in the chain of command who would refuse order to fire on unarmed Americans. The officer in question would undoubtedly be relieved of command (whomever it was) and then a different officer would subvert the order to fire at a different point. (seriously—try drawing ammo sometime; the clusterfuck involved of getting live rounds from an armory would give the average civilian an aneurism).
This would keep happening until there was finally a willing and enabled chain of command all the way down and at that point, when civilians are killed by the military, you would likely see a quick fracturing of the armed forces. Depending on who had proximity to SecDef and the joint chiefs and what their loyalties were would probably determine whether we ended up in a civil war/secession attempt (if they support the authoritarian takeover) or a coup attempt (if they don’t).
Comment by BUSY_EATING_ASS at 02/02/2025 at 03:48 UTC*
111 upvotes, 5 direct replies
The military is less partisan than you think; it's not *entirely* conservative, even if it isn't very liberal. Much of that conservatism is concentrated in the enlisted, the officer corps skew much less conservative.
When it comes down to it, the enlisted are gonna do whatever the officers tell them to, they're not going to get court martialed over Trump in any serious numbers, and I doubt much of the officer corps who leans conservative are 'Trump Authoritarian Rule' conservative.
Push comes to shove, I ultimately think they'll remember their oath. 'The military' is still pretty huge though, so I can't speak for *every* individual or unit. Shit might get weird.
EDIT: I guess to be more specific to what I think; some dumbass Sergeant doing a Kent State? Yeah, definitely possible. The military at large going 'It's Trump's world baby, we're just living in it' and enforcing military rule on his behalf on the whole country? Doubtful.
Comment by clios_daughter at 02/02/2025 at 07:47 UTC*
13 upvotes, 3 direct replies
So in the aftermath of the second world war, and an attempt to understand German atrocities, the Milgram experiments (with replications) were carried out to examine the role of authority. Specifically, whether or not an individual would refuse to obey an instruction given by an authority figure even if that instruction would result in harm to the victim. Roughly a 3rd would refuse, and 2/3 would execute the instruction. There was some variability in different replications such as the proximity of the authority figure to the subject as well as what constitute an authority figure.
For an actual case study, we can look at the micro history ordinary men by Christopher Browning which looked at a German order police battalion during the second world war. The vast majority of the men in this battalion were not Nazis or at least not ardent Nazi supporters. They were generally of middle age. They were ordered to kill several villages worth of Jews throughout the war. His findings were that about a third of the battalion would take part in the shooting of Jews quite willingly, another third would take part reluctantly, and a third would avoid taking part at all. (If anyone needs the citation for this I can provide it, but it’s late and I don’t want to rummage through a book looking for page numbers right now!)
Thus, given your question, we can presume that about 2/3 would likely comply with authority, and a third would resist. In practical terms, dismantling democracy imposing authoritarian rule is unlikely to result in immediate death — we can argue about human rights, etc. but the deaths that these violations may eventually lead to are nowhere near a certain as squeezing a trigger, or administering a lethal electric shock. The stakes of compliance were much higher for the order policeman, and the milligram subjects. It therefore would not surprise me if the resisters were smaller in number for the conterfactual you propose.
Comment by Zombie_John_Strachan at 02/02/2025 at 05:22 UTC
22 upvotes, 2 direct replies
Depends how thoroughly the military has been corrupted. Standard despot playbook would be to replace generals with supporters and then build a loyalist military within a military.
Create a unit based only on fanatical support, led by partisan loyalist. Use them as shock troops for attacking enemies. Rinse and repeat.
It could happen in the US because it could happen anywhere.
Comment by Opinionsare at 02/02/2025 at 12:29 UTC
8 upvotes, 0 direct replies
"If"...
This is happening in real time, right now. It is only a matter of time until the shooting begins.
It is inevitable that American soldiers will kill other American soldiers and innocent civilians.
There were active duty military in the attack of January 6.
The question is when and how widespread the inevitable fighting will become?
Trump has already committed impeachable acts, but as these high crimes are Republican policy, too many of our elected representatives join his conspiracy to subvert the Constitution.
What happened when a officer loyal to the Constitution and country arrests one of Trump's co-conspirators and they resist?
Comment by WheelyWheelyTired at 02/02/2025 at 03:42 UTC
14 upvotes, 0 direct replies
That depends very much on who is in charge and how favorably they, as well as the military at large, view their commander in chief. Caesars legions were personally loyal to Caesar, so they followed Caesar. That’s how this works ultimately.
Comment by 1lazygiraffe at 02/02/2025 at 15:38 UTC
5 upvotes, 0 direct replies
It's already happening. Look at the executive orders. Look at the cabinet nominations. Look at the firings. Look at how the Republicans are allowing violation of constitutional law and overstep without stopping. When Obama was president if he farted and the smell blew in their direction he would be blasted in the news and facing litigation.
Comment by awcguy at 02/02/2025 at 03:54 UTC
32 upvotes, 2 direct replies
A couple of thoughtful responses in this thread. Reality is more on the lines of “guess we will find out”. It’s cute to think about what might happen though.
Comment by PanickinAnakin_ at 02/02/2025 at 10:36 UTC
5 upvotes, 1 direct replies
There’s a lot of discussions internally from higher level leaders about reminding service members that their oath is to the constitution and not a person or political party. I could very well see leaders getting removed from service for not obeying an order, similar to how people were removed from service for the COVID vaccine. My concern is that they will look to rewrite what is considered constitutional to fit their political agenda. I like to think we will oppose unconstitutional actions but I also couldn’t fathom Trump winning this time either.
Comment by piney at 02/02/2025 at 11:44 UTC*
6 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Unfortunately, obeying an oath to the Constitution means you have to have *read* the Constitution, and that you understood what you read. Our entire legal system exists for people to argue about what is permissible under the law. Most service members, I think, would rely on the judgement of their superiors rather than raise their hand and litigate, themselves, the orders they’ve been given.
Comment by violetlightbulb at 02/02/2025 at 07:11 UTC
18 upvotes, 1 direct replies
I don’t think people realize how many service members were against a certain president the first time (including service members in power) and how many MORE are against him now.
The military is made of up minorities, people with backgrounds in low income families / areas, women, and LGBTQ+ personnel. And the cis white males are surrounded by these people, so more often than not they become great friends with everyone and learn a lot.
It’s a beautiful thing about the American military that isn’t often realized.
The problem is that there is a deep dedication to the president within the military (obviously) and an even more deep dedication to following orders. In short, it will be entirely up to the top people in charge. 18 year old kids probably won’t be able to resist much without being thrown into military jail, facing military charges, and so on. The members of the military are beholden to an entire separate set of laws, 24/7.
It would be interesting to see what happens. One thing is for sure though, they would be absolutely *pissed* and, if it continued for a long time, that president wouldn’t have a strong military for long. Not to mention recruitment would be decimated.
Comment by ZenPR at 02/02/2025 at 04:58 UTC
4 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Most junior enlisted people know they took an oath to the Constitution but they have never read it or know what's in it. They may not know better if they only get exposed to RW propaganda. Senior enlisted and officers have no excuse.
Comment by shep2105 at 02/02/2025 at 07:34 UTC
4 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Isn't this happening right now? Isn't this exactly what he is doing?
I keep hoping for a military coup.
Comment by llordlloyd at 02/02/2025 at 11:49 UTC
5 upvotes, 0 direct replies
History shows those with the guns will support fascism unless the soldiers are unpaid and/or starving.
Comment by DontListenToMe33 at 02/02/2025 at 12:19 UTC
4 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I have lost faith in people to do the right thing.
If ordered to arrest politicians, judges or shoot at protesters, I think many in the military would comply with those orders.
Comment by tosser1579 at 02/02/2025 at 13:32 UTC
5 upvotes, 0 direct replies
In theory, they would follow their oaths.
In practice, the POTUS isn't following his so expecting anyone else to is a bit hopeful. Every member of Trump's government places loyalty to Trump over any pesky thing like an oath or a old, moldy, sheet of paper.
Comment by ptwonline at 02/02/2025 at 16:00 UTC
5 upvotes, 0 direct replies
1. Military leaders would already be loyalists to the President
2. It would be preceded by massive propaganda to rationalize the need for it or to help disguise their true intentions, and so the military members would be more likely to go along with it.
Comment by ConsitutionalHistory at 02/02/2025 at 16:26 UTC
3 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Sadly... I fear our military is infiltrated by a 'fifth column ' o trumpets. I hope I'm wrong but I'm sure Germans in 1930s hoped they were wrong too
Comment by lime_solder at 02/02/2025 at 03:54 UTC
14 upvotes, 1 direct replies
They would follow orders. Blatantly illegal shit is happening right now and nobody's doing jack shit about it. Why would the military be any different?
Comment by DirkTheSandman at 02/02/2025 at 06:36 UTC
3 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Soldiers, like every other American right now, might be disapproving, but still comply. Nobody has any will to try to make a change or stand up for something, myself included. I can barely will myself to eat anything let alone create organized civil disobedience
Comment by Enjoy-the-sauce at 02/02/2025 at 07:18 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Unfortunately, I imagine Trump could just keep firing military brass until he had nothing but General Flynns left, and then they would do whatever he wanted, laws be damned. There’s a lot in our system that depends on niceties and norms and not being outright shitty. And… then we got this orange orangutan with a bad combover who only thinks of himself. It won’t end well.
Comment by slo1111 at 02/02/2025 at 12:39 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
After they complete firing those not aligned they will fully be in Trump's pocket. Military isn't gonna help anyone but authoritarians, partly because it is a very authoritarian organization and all it takes is getting the leaders of it backing the same orders.
Comment by SunderedValley at 02/02/2025 at 13:19 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I think most people in the military today see it as a way to escape poverty or deal with personal bereavement. Higher level ideals play into it about as much as working in a liquor store or working in the arms industry. It's just something that puts food on the table. This applies especially to the air force and navy. Lots of people there fall into the "gifted but not internally motivated + too socially awkward to make it past civilian HR" camp.
Plus. Uh. Well. This aren't people with many attachments outside their jobs.