7 upvotes, 5 direct replies (showing 5)
View submission: Casual Questions Thread
Am I crazy for discounting any pollster who consistently has Kennedy in the double digits? To me there's got to be something very wrong in their process--either in the weighting or the actual asking of questions--if they're getting such dramatic outlier results consistently.
Comment by Batistutas_Hair at 13/08/2024 at 12:14 UTC
0 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Pollsters don't control how people answer, all they can do is design good polls.
Comment by anti-torque at 08/08/2024 at 20:24 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
People like road kill.
Comment by AgentQwas at 15/07/2024 at 13:32 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
It may seem far-fetched because of how non-Republicans or Democrats historically do, but that's often because only a fraction of their bases will knowingly vote for a losing candidate. Everybody loves an independent until Election Day.
Comment by No-Touch-2570 at 12/04/2024 at 06:00 UTC
13 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Ron Paul was polling around 18% at this point in 2012.
It's an inescapable fact that people answer opinion polls differently than they do actual election polls. People aren't paying attention to the pollster, or want to express displeasure with their candidate, or they're intentionally giving wrong answers. That's why it's better to just completely ignore 3-way polls.
Comment by SmoothCriminal2018 at 11/04/2024 at 20:02 UTC*
10 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I wouldn’t discount them, just recognize this is how third party candidates tend to poll at this point in the cycle. “Other” was polling at 5%-10% at this point in the cycle in 2020, separate from undecided. The actual Other vote ended up being around 2%. That narrowed in the polls as we entered in the fall.
RFK is naturally going to get most of the other vote because of his last name. Doesn’t mean his support won’t collapse in the polls after the conventions, which I think they will.