4 upvotes, 5 direct replies (showing 5)
View submission: Casual Questions Thread
Why does Donald Trump continue to maintain a large lead in GOP primary polls despite being under state and federal indictment?
Comment by CuriousDevice5424 at 19/07/2023 at 19:09 UTC*
3 upvotes, 1 direct replies
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Comment by [deleted] at 19/07/2023 at 16:46 UTC
9 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Because the Trump cult is truly a cult. There will never be a "gotcha" moment when these people suddenly see the light and realize that they'd been conned; any attempt to point out the con to them only makes them embrace it tighter, believing themselves to be persecuted. And nobody in the GOP is able to destroy the monster that they've created.
Comment by [deleted] at 19/07/2023 at 13:42 UTC
-2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
This story, often repeated, is being propped up in a number of ways.
First, pollsters have been skewing the polls to over-represent Republicans by 5%. This is an overall bias that is being baked into the polling methodology and it has created a biased narrative.
Second, the polls are consistently showing a “percentage of a percentage” as if it is a percentage.
“50% of Republicans” sounds like a big impressive number, but “Republicans” are 25% of the electorate, and the electorate is 155 million people.
There are 260 million adults in the US, and any number of the 105 million people who aren’t registered to vote could register to vote over the next year.
“50% of Republicans” is “50% of 25%”
13% of the electorate. We are being led around by the idea that this extremely small minority is a big, hugely important group that could be the majority, when they are not.
Now, having support among “50% of Republicans” is important in the Republican primary, where Republicans are voting for their nominee, but not all of the people voting in the primary are Republicans!
There is nothing that prevents a person (in most states) from voting in the primary as a Republican and then voting as a Democrat in the general election. Independents do that, or the reverse, all the time!
So it is not beyond possibility that Trump will be defeated in the primaries, but it does look like they are stuck with him and that he will be their nominee and run for president from a jail cell.
Comment by SmoothCriminal2018 at 19/07/2023 at 12:52 UTC
5 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Because his supporters see it as political persecution. Also, people are quickly realizing the guy who positioned himself as the heir to Trump (Desantis) isn’t very charismatic which Trump has a lot of
Comment by [deleted] at 19/07/2023 at 00:20 UTC
5 upvotes, 0 direct replies
When Trump said "I could shoot someone in Times Square and not lose any supporters", he was speaking the truth.