https://www.reddit.com/r/HistoryWhatIf/comments/1ijf7ei/what_if_the_central_powers_respect_belgian/
created by Select-Opinion6410 on 06/02/2025 at 22:18 UTC
15 upvotes, 4 top-level comments (showing 4)
What would have happened if the Germans and Austrians fortified their frontiers with Triple Entente nations and didn't invade France or Belgium, but instead invaded Russia on a much grander scale than in our timeline?
Comment by BrilliantInterest928 at 06/02/2025 at 22:37 UTC
6 upvotes, 1 direct replies
They had a plan to go through Switzerland instead of Belgium but that plan didn't go ahead, probably because Belgium would be more navigable than the Swiss Alps. I believe they even had a swiss version of the Schlieffen Plan too. Though I think if they were to respect one's neutrality they would also respect the others.
So possibly they try a sea invasion (though the British would still probably join the fight and sink the ships) or just stick to doing the fighting through the direct border (would probably be a stalemate) or maybe they would try using the Italian/French border as an invasion point (though Italy betrays them so invading through them wouldn't work in the long term).
The war would most likely still happen even with respecting Belgian neutrality. France and Russia were the main alliance against the Germans and they could get out of it even if they built up relations with Germany and Austria-Hungary.
Comment by FGSM219 at 06/02/2025 at 22:30 UTC
8 upvotes, 1 direct replies
They would get sucker-punched by a French invasion to the west. The very formation of the Triple Entente was a mortal blow to Imperial Germany, they should have listened to Bismarck's advice to never alienate Russia.
In 1914 Europe the worst rivalry was the Franco-German one, the word ***revanchism*** comes from this. Alsace-Lorraine was the Palestine or Cyprus of that time.
Comment by [deleted] at 07/02/2025 at 00:16 UTC
1 upvotes, 1 direct replies
[removed]
Comment by BobbyP27 at 07/02/2025 at 08:12 UTC
1 upvotes, 1 direct replies
The alliance between France and Russia would mean a French attack on Germany. Most of the French industrial capacity at the time was in the north and northeast of the country, the area that the Germans invaded and fought over. If Germany just went for Russia directly, it would mean the full force of the French army focused on Alsace and Loraine, with French industrial capacity fully intact and producing at full war production rates. This was the disaster scenario that the Schlieffen plan was created to avoid: a fully capable France on one side and Russia on the other.
If they had respected Belgian neutrality, Britain would have stayed out, but with the Entente Cordiale, it is likely the UK would have supported France even if not with direct military action. The French army, with both French and British industrial capacity behind it, would have been very formidable. Unless Germany fully committed to the western front, likely the French would have pushed through to the Rhine, and potentially down the Rhine towards Frankfurt.