https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1j7p9ck
created by CosmicTea6 on 10/03/2025 at 03:12 UTC
97 upvotes, 39 top-level comments (showing 25)
I think we’re setting up for the final act of this bull cycle, a critical phase where the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market undergo a significant shift. This setup is characterized by the ETH/BTC ratio appearing to approach a bottom, signaling that Ethereum might be undervalued relative to Bitcoin, a pattern often seen before major altcoin rallies. Simultaneously, Bitcoin dominance is approaching a topping point, currently hovering around 60-61% as of March 9, 2025, which mirrors the high levels seen in late 2020. Meanwhile, Ethereum is starting to find a macro low, with its price potentially stabilizing around $4,000-$4,100, a level where over $5 billion in short liquidations are reportedly sitting. These liquidations could act as a catalyst, triggering a sharp upward move if market sentiment shifts. This scenario is assuming we follow a similar pattern to the last cycle, where late-stage bull run dynamics paved the way for an altcoin surge.
Looking back, Bitcoin dominance peaked around December 28, 2020 (or very close to it, at approximately 70%), a pivotal moment in the previous cycle. This peak marked the beginning of a gradual decline, as capital began to rotate away from Bitcoin and into alternative cryptocurrencies. This subsequent decline was the starting point for the 2021 altseason, which gained steam in January as Ethereum and other altcoins started to outperform Bitcoin. The altseason reached its peak in the spring, particularly around May 2021, when smaller-cap coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu saw explosive gains. December 28, 2020, was a turning point where Bitcoin’s grip on market dominance loosened, setting the stage for altcoins to shine brightly in the months that followed. This historical precedent suggests that a similar dominance peak now could herald another significant altcoin rally.
This would theoretically be the setup we are witnessing now—the start of an altseason approaching, a phenomenon typically observed only in the later stages of a crypto bull run. The current market conditions, with Bitcoin dominance nearing its zenith and Ethereum poised for a potential reversal, echo the late 2020 transition. An altseason doesn’t emerge until Bitcoin’s initial post-halving surge matures, allowing speculative capital to flow into altcoins. Based on this pattern, the altseason likely begins between April and June 2025, as Bitcoin dominance is expected to drop from its current 60-61% to perhaps 50-55%, a decline of 5-10%, which historically triggers altcoin momentum. During this period, Ethereum could rally from its macro low of $4,000-$4,100 toward $5,000 or higher, driven by the liquidation squeeze and renewed investor interest. Other altcoins, tracked via TOTAL3 (the market cap excluding BTC and ETH), might see similar gains, potentially doubling from current levels as seen in past cycles.
The BTC top, following this altseason, is projected to occur between August and November 2025, with a lean toward October-November due to summer’s low liquidity. This timeline fits the 4-year cycle’s 17-18 month peak window from the April 19, 2024, halving, aligning with the 18-month lag observed in 2021. Summer months (June-August) often bring reduced trading volume and liquidity, as traders and institutions take vacations, leading to consolidation rather than a parabolic move. This could delay the final BTC surge until fall, when market participation typically rebounds. Historically, Bitcoin has continued to rise alongside altcoins for a few months after the altseason peak (e.g., May 2021 to November 2021), suggesting that after an altcoin-driven summer, BTC could hit $105,000-$120,000 in a final blow-off top. This projection assumes a 30-50% increase from its current $80,529 (March 9, 2025), consistent with past cycle tops.
The interplay between these factors—dominance peaking, ETH/BTC bottoming, and the macro low—sets the stage for a dramatic finale to this bull cycle. If we follow the 2020-2021 pattern, the next few months will be crucial, with April-June 2025 marking the altseason’s onset and October-November 2025 potentially delivering the cycle’s climax. Monitoring dominance trends, ETH’s breakout, and liquidity shifts will be key to confirming this trajectory. This late-stage setup underscores the cyclical nature of crypto markets, where Bitcoin’s dominance gives way to altcoin dominance before the ultimate peak.
I would like to hear everyones opinions and thoughts on this.
Comment by tadeup at 10/03/2025 at 03:16 UTC
154 upvotes, 3 direct replies
ok but can you just bring me my burger now man?
Comment by GreedVault at 10/03/2025 at 03:26 UTC
42 upvotes, 2 direct replies
A morale boosting post, I hope you’re right. My altbag is dying.
Comment by colonisedlifeworld at 10/03/2025 at 03:14 UTC
63 upvotes, 11 direct replies
ETF-driven flows have altered Bitcoin’s cycle structure. 2021 relied on retail hype but 2025 has more institutional influence. Institutions don’t rotate into alts like retail does, so assuming a classic altseason may be too optimistic.
Comment by diwalost at 10/03/2025 at 04:30 UTC
8 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Not without QE though...
Comment by Lagna85 at 10/03/2025 at 06:42 UTC
16 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Usually, I would ignore posts like this. But now, I need all the hopium I can get
Comment by Strict-Comfort-1337 at 10/03/2025 at 06:04 UTC
7 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Hasn’t alt season been starting every month since last September?
Comment by porpoisebuilt2 at 10/03/2025 at 04:32 UTC
9 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Optimistic post OP, nothing wrong with positivity. Guess time will tell, most commentary spills out into areas too grey IMO
Comment by No_Ideal_372 at 10/03/2025 at 07:04 UTC
8 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Very impressive essay. I still believe the bull will continues and there should be 2 more running ups. One in a couple months and then Top in Q4 2025 before we enter a bear market. Tariff is nothing compare to covid. The big boys are just scaring the paper hands.
Comment by nameless_pattern at 10/03/2025 at 03:50 UTC
33 upvotes, 2 direct replies
There's so many macro issues with the economy. I can't see any highly speculative asset doing well medium term in this environment.
Comment by Ethwh4le at 10/03/2025 at 04:03 UTC
7 upvotes, 3 direct replies
I think more in late summer we will see the final act shorterm looking bad ngl
Comment by noyesfuck000 at 10/03/2025 at 04:14 UTC
3 upvotes, 1 direct replies
I’m sold
Comment by prfssrcha0s at 10/03/2025 at 11:07 UTC
3 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Ah yes Alt coin season was also supposed to start in September, then October, then November, then December, then January, then February, then march.... Eventually someone will guess right
Comment by petethefreeze at 10/03/2025 at 05:54 UTC
6 upvotes, 1 direct replies
An “Altseason” doesn’t exist. People just refer to a pattern that they saw happening twice but didn’t happen several times after. You are only seeing what you want to see and know nothing about what is going to happen. Just like the rest of us.
Comment by adrianthaman at 10/03/2025 at 05:12 UTC
4 upvotes, 2 direct replies
Alt season starting in the middle of a trading war ?
Comment by rice_n_gravy at 10/03/2025 at 03:30 UTC
6 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Keep telling yourselves that.
Comment by MeatKettle at 10/03/2025 at 05:21 UTC
4 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Finally, some optimism.
I feel like negative sentiment of late has been a bit of a despair cycle. People, whine - it goes lower so they whine more and cycle continues.
Comment by TCr0wn at 10/03/2025 at 06:32 UTC
4 upvotes, 1 direct replies
Why are you assuming BTC.d is topping? You just say “it’s expected to”. But it hasn’t dropped at all yet.
That’s a major flaw in your whole post.
Comment by inShambles3749 at 10/03/2025 at 06:49 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I really don't see this happening considering the macro but hey what do I know. Markets are random as fuck.
Comment by Mokhlis_Jones at 10/03/2025 at 07:35 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I'm tired boss
Comment by wales-bloke at 10/03/2025 at 07:56 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Literally everything is fucked.
That's the macro situation right now.
I'm holding my ETH because I refuse to sell at a loss but dear god, the regret I have for not selling in December is like being punched in the stomach.
Comment by pikkuhillo at 10/03/2025 at 08:22 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Put your isolated margins in because it is not possible that alts would not pump at all, right?
Comment by Phine420 at 10/03/2025 at 09:11 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Altcoin season but we only grow in btc/eth denominations and go down in gold. Our $-networth stays the same.
Comment by gowithflow192 at 10/03/2025 at 09:18 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
ETH is just an oscillator like all alts. Look how sharp the pumps are. It's more or less moving like XRP. One day it will pump and the entire pump will be in less than a week. Sell it immediately after it pumps and it's easy money.
Comment by Kavinsky303 at 10/03/2025 at 09:42 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
„ETH / BTC approaching to hit a bottom“…yeah might look like that at first glance in your zoomed out view on TradingView. If you measure the distance to the low from Dec 2022 though, it actually still has 30 - 35% to go. So no, the bottom is not in.
Comment by dmx442 at 10/03/2025 at 09:43 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
World is in war and chaos that hasn't been seen in decades,