858 upvotes, 12 direct replies (showing 12)
View submission: Don't invest recklessly
All good advice and very carefully framed. My one nitpick is that I think that $100k-$250k would not imply that fiat is becoming worthless or the prevailing economic regime has completely fallen apart. That's only a ~2 Trillion Market Cap still far less than gold and the rise of gold certainly hasn't made fiat worthless. I think you would be talking a price of well over $1M before you are really seeing any real loss of trust in fiat having an impact of the exchange rate.
Comment by awoeoc at 30/11/2017 at 06:22 UTC
450 upvotes, 14 direct replies
That's only a ~2 Trillion Market Cap
Right now for $100k I can change bitcoin's market cap by over $100 million dollars (although briefly).
Market cap is useless as a number for bitcoin when trying to compare it to its impact on the larger economy. The market cap right now is over $100billion and I can assure you no where near that amount of money has gone into bitcoin. And **that** should worry everyone.
Think about it, where did that "wealth" come from? What former billionaire is now flat broke since everyone who invested in bitcoin took his money? When bcash split off, who put in $23billion into it? Why is it "worth" $23billion?
Everyone seems to hate fractional reserve banking, but not realizing that bitcoin as of right now is almost the same thing (in terms of creating "fake" wealth). We're all pooling our "wealth" into bitcoin and as long as only some of us takes it out at a time it works. But if we all took it out at once? It'd collapse the system completely.
The only way Bitcoin survives in the long run is if people can use bitcoin directly for goods and services. Right now that just isn't true as very few people accept bitcoin as payment. (Processors that just take bitcoin and deliver fiat to businesses don't count).
Until it's usable as a currency in a real sense, Bitcoin's value depends on people not actually claiming their "wealth tickets".
Comment by reddlvr at 30/11/2017 at 03:29 UTC
79 upvotes, 5 direct replies
Also, bitcoin supply is hard capped at 21 million which if it survives as asset means bitcoin prices will be deflationary ==> fiat exchange will go up up, regardless of the health of fiat currencies.
Comment by yourmomsaysHODL at 30/11/2017 at 07:31 UTC
10 upvotes, 1 direct replies
3-4 million are said to be lost
Comment by Chiponyasu at 30/11/2017 at 06:14 UTC
23 upvotes, 5 direct replies
Fiat currency will never be worthless as long as the countries issuing them exist, because you can't pay taxes with bitcoin (even though you have to pay taxes *on* bitcoin)
Comment by [deleted] at 30/11/2017 at 04:44 UTC
12 upvotes, 2 direct replies
The rise of gold? You know gold has been popular long before Fiat right?
Comment by blockchaindrummer at 30/11/2017 at 12:48 UTC
3 upvotes, 0 direct replies
If you listened to theymos you would have dumped at 10 bucks because LOL it was a bubble from $1. Then out the wizard of oz and buy and hodl
Comment by [deleted] at 04/12/2017 at 20:50 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
It's more akin to M0 than market cap. The current USD M0 is roughly $4T, and they are probably around 25% of the world's currency in terms of relevancy / use. The tricky thing is understanding what Bitcoin's M1 will be, since people generally don't like borrowing when price deflation is happening. I dunno, I could see this going to $500k a coin if they don't ban it.
Comment by McJew87 at 20/12/2017 at 21:58 UTC
2 upvotes, 0 direct replies
Navcoin launches the NAVPay app today Dec 20th. Why Navcoin? 1) 30 second transact time 2) Earns u 4% interest using a regular PC, no special mining equipment needed 3) Double blockchain technology
Comment by ChipAyten at 30/11/2017 at 16:46 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
I think he means at ~$175k is when the snowflake on the top of the mountain starts to roll down hill.
Comment by tLNTDX at 05/12/2017 at 20:13 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
That's only a ~2 Trillion Market Cap still far less than gold and the rise of gold certainly hasn't made fiat worthless.
What rise are you talking about? Gold has been a currency and a store of value way longer than fiat has existed.
Comment by HelenMiserlou at 14/12/2017 at 07:27 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
...my nitpick is that he doesn't know how roulette works.
Comment by mutua_fides at 19/12/2017 at 15:27 UTC
1 upvotes, 0 direct replies
The value of gold owned by central Banks is less than 1.5 Trillion USD. It is difficult to say at what point trust in the global economic system will collapse. But as soon as BTCs market cap increases beyond the value of gold owned by central Banks across the globe, I would start to worry. So a BTC price of $100k would -in my view- indeed seem unlikely aswell as worrying. Hierover, In would feel that a collapse of BTC prices is more like than a collapse of these global economic system. So..., if you'd ask me a significant price increase of BTC is still very well possible, but the most upbeat scenario should assume a price limit of less than $100k (in the next 5 years).