Stuff about the Climate. Mostly about the climate *catastrophe*, obviously.
#Bookmarks #Climate
Eight billion people can’t live off the grid. We tried that with a far smaller global population. It didn’t work. That many people can only live in societies where we carefully manage our resources, including food, water, and medicine. – You're Not Going to Make It, by Jessica Wildfire, for OK Doomer
Look closely at the chart below: July 2023 is more than four standard deviations outside the 1979–2000 mean. – Gradual Measures Won’t Save Us From Climate Disaster
You're Not Going to Make It, by Jessica Wildfire, for OK Doomer
Gradual Measures Won’t Save Us From Climate Disaster
Magnitude and rate of change.
Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts. – Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions
Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions
Who pays for it.
The research, published on 28 October in *Science Advances*, estimates that the global economy lost between US$5 trillion and $29 trillion from 1992 to 2013, as a result of human-driven global warming. But the effect was worst in low-income tropical nations, leading to a 6.7% reduction in their national income on average, whereas high-income countries experienced only a 1.5% average decrease. – Climate change is costing trillions — and low-income countries are paying the price
Climate change is costing trillions — and low-income countries are paying the price
Measuring it. At the end of 2021, Switzerland holds number 152 of 165. How little is achieved, and at what cost.
The Sustainable Development Index (SDI) measures the ecological efficiency of human development, recognizing that development must be achieved within planetary boundaries. It was created to update the Human Development Index (HDI) for the ecological realities of the Anthropocene. The SDI starts with each nation’s human development score (life expectancy, education and income) and divides it by their ecological overshoot: the extent to which consumption-based CO2 emissions and material footprint exceed fair shares of planetary boundaries. Countries that achieve relatively high human development while remaining within or near planetary boundaries rise to the top. – Sustainable Development Index
The IPCC itself:
This site hosts text-only extracts from the IPCC 6th Assessment Reports. Specifically, the following are available: – PlainTextIPCC.com
💀 🌞 💀 🌞 💀
… it was agreed that every effort should be made to try to limit that rise to 1.5C, although to achieve such a goal, it was calculated that global carbon emissions will have to be reduced by 45% by 2030. “In the real world, that is not going to happen,” says McGuire. “Instead, we are on course for close to a 14% rise in emissions by that date – which will almost certainly see us shatter the 1.5C guardrail in less than a decade.” … Anything above 1.5C will see a world plagued by intense summer heat, extreme drought, devastating floods, reduced crop yields, rapidly melting ice sheets and surging sea levels. A rise of 2C and above will seriously threaten the stability of global society, McGuire argues. It should also be noted that according to the most hopeful estimates of emission cut pledges made … the world is on course to heat up by between 2.4C and 3C. – ‘Soon it will be unrecognisable’: total climate meltdown cannot be stopped, says expert
‘Soon it will be unrecognisable’: total climate meltdown cannot be stopped, says expert
Drinking rainwater is unsafe … everywhere on Earth!
… comparing the levels of four selected perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) (i.e., perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA)) in various global environmental media (i.e., rainwater, soils, and surface waters) with recently proposed guideline levels. On the basis of the four PFAAs considered, it is concluded that (1) levels of PFOA and PFOS in rainwater often greatly exceed US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Lifetime Drinking Water Health Advisory levels … (2) levels of PFOS in rainwater are often above Environmental Quality Standard for Inland European Union Surface Water; and (3) atmospheric deposition also leads to global soils being ubiquitously contaminated … Levels of PFAAs in atmospheric deposition are especially poorly reversible because of the high persistence of PFAAs and their ability to continuously cycle in the hydrosphere, including on sea spray aerosols emitted from the oceans. Because of the poor reversibility of environmental exposure to PFAS and their associated effects, it is vitally important that PFAS uses and emissions are rapidly restricted. – Outside the Safe Operating Space of a New Planetary Boundary for Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS)
We need to abolish the rich.
“Why do I have to limit my meat consumption and use paper straws while the 1% gets to pump tons of carbon into the atmosphere for a day trip to Palm Springs?” … Just 1% of people cause a stunning 50% of global aviation emissions. … Governments should be doing more than raising the marginal income tax rate. They should be making it impossible for people to be billionaires … before Thatcherism took hold in Britain, the highest tax rate in the UK was 83%. A world without billionaires would be a happier, more equal and greener world. – Private Jet Use Shows Why We Must Abolish Billionaires, by Ell Folan, for Novara Media
The top 1% of EU households have a carbon footprint of 55 tCO₂eq/cap. The most significant contribution is from air and land transport, with 41% and 21% among the top 1% of EU households. – The unequal distribution of household carbon footprints in Europe and its link to sustainability
Private Jet Use Shows Why We Must Abolish Billionaires, by Ell Folan, for Novara Media
The unequal distribution of household carbon footprints in Europe and its link to sustainability
How to handle it:
The climate crisis prompts questions that challenge our very being. We ask ourselves: ‘Who am I in this increasingly unstable world? What is to become of me?’ Such questions can lead to despair, or lead us to look away, but, as we will see, they can also positively challenge the way we think about ourselves. – Why seek self-realisation?, by Helen De Cruz, for Aeon
The key to overcoming climate anxiety is understanding that the climate apocalypse is not a looming threat that will soon be upon us. It’s here — you and I are living through it right now. People are dying in heat waves and storms who wouldn’t be dying if we had averted climate apocalypse. But we didn’t. So here we are: living through the apocalpyse. – Why I’m not a doomer (anymore)
Why seek self-realisation?, by Helen De Cruz, for Aeon
Why I’m not a doomer (anymore)
We need to use less. @wim_v12e Posted the following:
Energy mix projections for 2050. Scenarios from the International Energy Agency.
STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario, takes account only of specific policies that are in place or have been announced by governments.APC = Announced Pledges Case, assumes that all announced national net zero pledges are achieved in full and on time, whether or not they are currently underpinned by specific policies.
Even in the very optimistic APC scenario, in 2050 still ~70% of energy will be from fossil fuels.
For electricity, APC is ~30%, so 70% from renewables.The problem is though that this is because renewables generation goes up, not because fossil fuel generation goes down. So emissions from fossil fuels don’t actually decrease much, even in this optimistic scenario.
“Global electricity generation nearly doubles during the next three decades in the APC, rising from about 26800 terawatt‐hours (TWh) in 2020 to over 50000 TWh in 2050. Low‐emissions energy sources provide all the increase.” – Net Zero by 2050
Beavers make wetlands:
These biodiversity benefits have a knock-on effect in the surrounding landscape. The water backing up above the dam has created further wetlands outside of the fenced area, where large mammals such as deer, pigs and cows can come down to slake their thirst. – How beavers stay wet during UK drought
How beavers stay wet during UK drought
Methane and “natural” gas:
To avoid poorly designed energy policies, new research on the climate impact of methane (for example, via leakage), non-business as usual assumptions and non-economic factors should be included in scenarios. In many of the scenarios referred to by natural gas proponents, these aspects remain largely unexamined. A representative example is the scenario analysis study by Eurogas that only covers CO2 from energy use and process emissions, with methane emissions not covered at all. Most importantly, the climate impacts of the use of natural gas have been systematically underestimated in energy system modelling and in the balance of national GHG inventories. This can be observed, for example, in the European Union’s commonly used energy system model PRIMES (price-induced market equilibrium system) and the linked GAINS (greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies) model (applied, for example, in the EU Reference Scenarios 2016 and 2020), which both use outdated GWP100 values. This is also the case, for example, in the German Environment Agency’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reporting. – The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk
The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk
Hydrogen:
Bringing an evidence based viewpoint into the political discussion on hydrogen … The only zero emissions hydrogen is renewable hydrogen … We need to decarbonise existing hydrogen first … Hydrogen shouldn’t delay efficiency and electrification solutions … Blending hydrogen into the gas grid is a waste … – Hydrogen science coalition
Class struggle:
It is true that everyone in rich countries need to reduce their carbon emissions, whether rich or poor. But national averages obscure as much as they inform. … Put simply, the climate crisis is being caused by the richest class in every country. They’re the ones who are recklessly driving us over the precipice of planetary breakdown. – The Rich Are the Ones Burning the Planet, by Max Lawson, for Jacobin
The Rich Are the Ones Burning the Planet, by Max Lawson, for Jacobin
Quoting Oxfam:
The richest 10% of the world’s population (c.630 million people)
were responsible for 52% of the cumulative carbon emissions – depleting the global carbon budget by nearly a third (31%) in those 25 years alone …
The poorest 50% (c.3.1 billion people) were responsible for just
7% of cumulative emissions, and used just 4% of the available carbon budget …
The richest 1% (c.63 million people) alone were responsible for
15% of cumulative emissions, and 9% of the carbon budget – twice as much as the poorest half of the world’s population …
The richest 5% (c.315 million people) were responsible for over a
third (37%) of the total growth in emissions (see Figure 2), while the total growth in emissions of the richest 1% was three times that of the poorest 50% …
Confronting carbon inequality, Oxfam
Max Lawson also says, as if summarizing the Oxfam report:
For about 20 percent of the human population — corresponding to the working and lower-middle classes in rich countries, mainly — per capita emissions actually fell from 1990 to 2015.
I’m not sure where that figure comes from, though.
The amount of carbon dioxide we can still emit to have just a 50 per cent chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C is even smaller than previously thought – We can now only stay under 1.5°C target if we achieve net zero by 2034, by Michael Le Page, for the New Scientist, based on Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets, by Robin D. Lamboll, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Edward Byers & Joeri Rogelj, in Nature Climate Change (2023)
We can now only stay under 1.5°C target if we achieve net zero by 2034
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
The dynamics are important, not just the averages:
Even for lay persons it will be obvious that heat extremes will increase in a warming world. But it may be unexpected by how much: monthly heat extremes that were three standard deviations above average during the baseline period 1951–1980 have already increased over 90-fold in frequency over the global land area, while the formerly near-unprecedented 4-sigma events have increased 1000-fold to affect 3% of the land area in any given month, data show (Robinson et al 2021). July 2023 was the hottest month on record on Earth by a large margin (Copernicus 2023a), and likely the hottest for at least 10 000 years. – Extreme weather in a changing climate, by Giorgia Di Capua and Stefan Rahmstorf, in Environmental Research Letters
Extreme weather in a changing climate
We should be leaving it in the ground:
Taken together, [current] government plans and projections lead to an INCREASE in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050. This conflicts with the Paris Agreement commitments, and clashes with expectations that demand for fossil fuels will peak within this decade. – The Production Gap
Petro-masculinity:
As the planet warms, new authoritarian movements in the West are embracing a toxic combination of climate denial, racism and misogyny. Rather than consider these resentments separately, this article interrogates their relationship through the concept of petro-masculinity, which appreciates the historic role of fossil fuel systems in buttressing white patriarchal rule. Petro-masculinity is helpful to understanding how the anxieties aroused by the Anthropocene can augment desires for authoritarianism. The concept of petro-masculinity suggests that fossil fuels mean more than profit; fossil fuels also contribute to making identities, which poses risks for post-carbon energy politics. Moreover, through a psycho-political reading of authoritarianism, I show how fossil fuel use can function as a violent compensatory practice in reaction to gender and climate trouble. – Petro-masculinity: Fossil Fuels and Authoritarian Desire by Cara New Daggett
Petro-masculinity: Fossil Fuels and Authoritarian Desire
Tipping points:
With just 1.5 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, northern forests are at risk, as are mangroves and other coastal ecosystems, the report warns. Large parts of the Amazon rainforest could be replaced by savannah with as little as 2 °C of warming, disrupting life across South America and resulting in even more carbon being pumped into the atmosphere. – Catastrophic change looms as Earth nears climate ‘tipping points’, report says, by Jeff Tollefson, for Nature, based on a report released at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Catastrophic change looms as Earth nears climate ‘tipping points’, report says
Battery storage is important:
… the peak for battery storage occurred in South Australia on September 28, at 6.50pm, when the combined output of the Hornsdale Power Reserve, the new Torrens Island battery, and the Lake Bonney and Dalrymple batteries, accounted for 340 MW, or 20.8 per cent of generation. – Battery storage meets more than 20 per cent of early evening peak demand in Australia, by Giles Parkinson, for Renew Economy
Battery storage meets more than 20 per cent of early evening peak demand in Australia
Renewables in the UK:
New wind power records are set regularly, and between 9:00am and 9:30am on 21st December 2023 British wind farms averaged a record 21.81GW of generation. – National Grid: Live, by Kate Morley.
@kate@fosstodon.org says:
2023 was the year renewables overtook fossil fuels as the largest contributor to British electricity generation. In the 12 years I’ve been running National Grid: Live … electricity generation from fossil fuels has fallen from an average of 25.1GW to 10.2GW, while renewables have risen from 2.5GW to 10.8GW.
@VQuaschning@mastodon.green meinte zur Situation in Deutschland:
Erneuerbare Energien haben diese Woche über 90% der Last in Deutschland gedeckt! 1990 waren es noch 4%. Seitdem wird erzählt, ein noch höherer Anteil Erneuerbarer sei technisch nicht möglich.
Mit dabei war ein Bild, betitelt "Gesamte Nettostromerzeugung für Woche 52, 2023, Deutschland", erstellt mit Energy Charts, wo man sich alles mögliche für diverse Länder anzeigen lassen kann.
Greenwashing:
Our analysis thus suggests that green growth approaches, understood here as pursuing climate mitigation alongside continued economic growth, are inadequate for high-income countries to deliver on their Paris obligations. Further economic growth in high-income countries is at odds with the climate and equity commitments of the Paris Agreement. Narratives that celebrate decoupling achievements in high-income countries as green growth are thus misleading and represent a form of greenwashing. – Is green growth happening? An empirical analysis of achieved versus Paris-compliant CO2–GDP decoupling in high-income countries, by Jefim Vogel, MSc, Prof Jason Hickel, PhD, in Lancet: Planetary Health
Birds and turbines:
Do wind turbines kill birds? Yes—but only a fraction as many as are killed by house cats, buildings, or even the fossil fuel operations that wind farms replace. – Do wind turbines kill birds?, by MIT Climate Portal Writing Team
I suspect that you can no longer compare climate scientists to child molesters but questioning the climate catastrophe is not ending any time soon:
After a four-week trial, a D.C. Superior Court jury awarded the climatologist $1 million after finding that Rand Simberg, writing for the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and Mark Steyn, writing for the National Review, had defamed Mann in blog posts published in 2012. They accused Mann of manipulating the science around his “hockey stick” graph illustrating the exponential rise of global temperatures. – Embattled Climate Scientist Michael Mann Wins $1 Million in Defamation Lawsuit, by Pamela King & E&E News, for Scientific American
Embattled Climate Scientist Michael Mann Wins $1 Million in Defamation Lawsuit
Atlantic:
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. – Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, René M. van Westen, Michael Kliphuis, and Henk A. Dijkstra, in Science Advances
Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
Sea level rise:
What the map shows is that the timing at which any individual place on earth reaches 2 m is strongly dependent on where on earth it is. In general lower latitudes close to the equator will get to 2m before higher latitudes, and while there are ocean circulation and other processes that are important here – to a large extent your local sea level is controlled by how close to the ice sheets you are and how quickly those ice sheets will lose their ice. – Local sea level rise: A question of gravity, by Dr. Ruth Mottram
Local sea level rise: A question of gravity
@revjss@sfba.social links to this interview:
We were probably misled by the same pessimism that we found to be so widespread across the globe. 69% of the world’s population is willing to contribute 1% of their monthly income to fight global warming. A broad majority of people across the globe is willing to pay a personal cost. In fact, in 114 out of 125 countries, a majority of respondents is willing to fight climate change. However, in 110 out of 125 countries, the majority thinks that they are in the minority: When asked about how many people in their country are willing to contribute, most respondents think that less than half of their fellow citizens would be willing to contribute. – Interview: Why global support for global climate action is systematically underestimated, by Simon Evans
Pessimism is in fact part of lobbying effort, it would seem. If there's nothing we can do, then there's concrete political initiative that politicians dare propose or that citizens feel worth supporting.
The interviewees are the author of the following study:
In this study, we conducted a representative survey across 125 countries, interviewing nearly 130,000 individuals. Our findings reveal widespread support for climate action. Notably, 69% of the global population expresses a willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income, 86% endorse pro-climate social norms and 89% demand intensified political action. Countries facing heightened vulnerability to climate change show a particularly high willingness to contribute. Despite these encouraging statistics, we document that the world is in a state of pluralistic ignorance, wherein individuals around the globe systematically underestimate the willingness of their fellow citizens to act. This perception gap, combined with individuals showing conditionally cooperative behaviour, poses challenges to further climate action. Therefore, raising awareness about the broad global support for climate action becomes critically important in promoting a unified response to climate change. – Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action, by Peter Andre, Teodora Boneva, Felix Chopra & Armin Falk, in nature climate change
Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action
What to do was we're crashing through 1.5°C and approaching 2.0°C:
This assessment identifies 36 climate risks with potentially severe consequences across Europe. The risks are evaluated in the contexts of risk severity, policy horizon (lead time and decision horizon), policy readiness and risk ownership. It further
identifies priorities for EU policy action, based on a structured risk assessment united with qualitative aspects, such as considering social justice. – European Climate Risk Assessment report
European Climate Risk Assessment report
Climate and capitalism:
As environmental, social and humanitarian crises escalate, the world can no longer afford two things: first, the costs of economic inequality; and second, the rich. Between 2020 and 2022, the world’s most affluent 1% of people captured nearly twice as much of the new global wealth created as did the other 99% of individuals put together1, and in 2019 they emitted as much carbon dioxide as the poorest two-thirds of humanity2. In the decade to 2022, the world’s billionaires more than doubled their wealth, to almost US$12 trillion. – Why the world cannot afford the rich, by Richard G. Wilkinson & Kate E. Pickett, for Nature
Why the world cannot afford the rich
Third actuaries report:
The stark conclusion from this work is that a high overshoot scenario is more likely than a low overshoot scenario, at this point in time. If the underpinning assumptions for high overshoot scenarios are required to be ‘reasonable’, then ONLY SIX of the original family of over 1,200 scenarios provide a credible pathway to limiting global warming to 1.5°C. – Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail
Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail
Zum Thema Torf… das BAFU hat was dazu:
Torf ist aber immer noch sehr beliebt in der Schweiz. Zu grossen Teilen
stammt der Torf aus nordeuropäischen Ländern wie etwa den baltischen
Staaten. Dabei landet ein Drittel der in die Schweiz importierten
Torfmenge im Detailhandel. … Moore machen weltweit zwar nur 3 Prozent
der Landoberfläche aus, speichern aber doppelt soviel Kohlenstoff wie
alle Wälder zusammen. Insgesamt finden sich hier ein Drittel der
Kohlstoffvorräte, die in Böden gebunden sind. … In trockenem Zustand
kommt Sauerstoff an das Material und ein Zersetzungsprozess kommt in
Gang. Dabei wird unter anderem CO2 und Lachgas freigesetzt. CO2 und
Lachgas tragen zum Klimawandel bei – die klimaschädliche Wirkung des
Lachgases ist sogar 300 Mal höher als diejenige von CO2.
– Torffrei gärtnern: So gedeihen Pflanzen umweltschonend ohne Torf (2018)
Torffrei gärtnern: So gedeihen Pflanzen umweltschonend ohne Torf
Was ist mit den anderen zwei Drittel?
Torf ist gefragt: Für den industriellen Gemüseanbau wird er in riesigen Mengen in ganz Europa verkauft. Der Ursprung des Torfs sind vor allem Moore im Baltikum, die durch seinen Abbau immer weiter zerstört werden – mit gravierenden Auswirkungen auf den Klimawandel. … Torfabbau war auch in Deutschland einst weit verbreitet. Wurde Torf früher vor allem als Brennstoff genutzt, bedient die heutige Torfindustrie den Gartenbau mit Kultursubstraten, die zu 90 Prozent aus Torf bestehen. 95 Prozent der deutschen Torfabbaugebiete liegen in Niedersachsen. Hier werden jährlich rund 6,5 Millionen Kubikmeter Torf abgebaut. Die Nachfrage des Gartenbaus allein in Deutschland beträgt aber ca. 9 Millionen Kubikmeter. Deshalb wird zusätzlich Torf aus dem Baltikum importiert. Den Höhepunkt des Torfabbaus erreichten die baltischen Länder während der Ära der Sowjetunion in der Mitte des 20. Jahrhunderts. Durch den Beitritt Estlands, Lettlands und Litauens zur Europäischen Union konnten viele Moore als Natura-2000-Schutzgebiete gesichert werden. Allerdings blieben viele der Torfabbaurechte trotz der Schutzgebietsausweisungen unangetastet. Die steigende Nachfrage nach baltischem Torf in Europa führt aber zu einer erhöhten Gefahr für die noch intakten Moore. – Langzeitprobleme durch Torfabbau
Langzeitprobleme durch Torfabbau
Heinrich Böll Stiftung:
Gute torffreie Blumenerde gibt es im Baumarkt. Würde ausschließlich diese verwendet, könnte man in Deutschland 400.000 Tonnen CO₂ pro Jahr einsparen … In allen Moorböden sind mit rund 600 Milliarden Tonnen etwa ein Drittel der auf den Landflächen gebundenen Kohlenstoffvorräte enthalten. Durch Abbau und Verbrauch verursacht Torf in der Europäischen Union Treibhausgasemissionen in Höhe von circa 21,4 Millionen Tonnen CO₂-Äquivalenten pro Jahr. Das entspricht etwa einem Sechstel der Gesamtemissionen aus Moorböden. Trotzdem verursacht der Abbau und die Verwendung von Torf im Vergleich zu allen anderen Moornutzungen die höchsten Emissionen pro Hektar, weil der Kohlenstoff bei Torfnutzung besonders schnell freigesetzt wird.
– Torfabbau und Klimakrise: Ein fossiler Rohstoff aus dem Moor (2023)
Torfabbau und Klimakrise: Ein fossiler Rohstoff aus dem Moor
Eine etwas längere Zusammenfassung hier:
Emissions from drained peatlands are estimated at 1.9 gigatonnes of CO2e
annually. This is equivalent to 5% of global anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions, a disproportionate amount considering damaged peatlands
cover just 0.3% of landmass. Fires in Indonesian peat swamp forests in
2015, for example, emitted nearly 16 million tonnes of CO2 a day; which
is more than the entire economy of the United States.
Worldwide, the remaining area of near natural peatland (over 3 million
km2) sequesters 0.37 gigatonnes of CO2 a year. Peat soils contain more
than 600 gigatonnes of carbon which represents up to 44% of all soil
carbon, and exceeds the carbon stored in all other vegetation types
including the world’s forests.
– Global Peatlands Assessment: The State of the World’s Peatlands (2022)
Global Peatlands Assessment: The State of the World’s Peatlands
Oder einen Artikel im Nature, Communications Earth & Environment:
Degradation of peatlands through land-use change and drainage is
currently responsible for 5-10% of global annual anthropogenic carbon
dioxide emissions. … While restoration may not return a degraded site
to a state where all ecosystem services are recovered, a lot of
evidence exists in support for peatland restoration, as discussed in
this compilation. In particular, prompt rewetting of drained peatlands
can quickly reduce carbon losses and/or lead to net carbon
accumulation, even if it may not fully restore “natural” conditions,
even within decades, particularly in severely disturbed and
long-drained peatlands.
– Ecological resilience of restored peatlands to climate change (2022)
Ecological resilience of restored peatlands to climate change
In Nature Communications (2018):
In the event that no further areas are exploited, drained peatlands
will cumulatively release 80.8 Gt carbon and 2.3 Gt nitrogen. This
corresponds to a contemporary annual greenhouse gas emission of 1.91
(0.31–3.38) Gt CO2-eq. that could be saved with peatland restoration.
Soil carbon sequestration on all agricultural land has comparable
mitigation potential. However, additional nitrogen is needed to build
up a similar carbon pool in organic matter of mineral soils,
equivalent to 30–80% of the global fertilizer nitrogen application
annually. Restoring peatlands is 3.4 times less nitrogen costly and
involves a much smaller land area demand than mineral soil carbon
sequestration, calling for a stronger consideration of peatland
rehabilitation as a mitigation measure.
– The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change
mitigation strategies
The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies
The untiring @gerrymcgovern@mastodon.green links:
The world is in the midst of a triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution and waste. The global economy is consuming ever more natural resources, while the world is not on track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. The scientific community has never before been more aligned or more resolute on the need for urgent global transformation towards the sustainable use of resources. This 2024 edition of the Global Resources Outlook sheds light on how resources are essential to the effective implementation of the Agenda 2030 and multilateral environmental agreements to tackle the triple planetary crisis. The report brings together the best available data, modelling and assessments to analyse trends, impacts and distributional effects of resource use. It builds on more than 15 years of work by the International Resource Panel, including scientific assessments and inputs from countries, a vast network of stakeholders in the field and regional experts. – Global Resources Outlook 2024
An overview of our steel dilemma:
In 2021, the iron and steel industry produced 3.3 Gt of carbon emissions, roughly 9% of global emissions (36.3 Gt). The concrete industry follows closely with 8%. … The scrap available for recycling in 2021 corresponds to the production level of 1965 when global steel production was less than one-quarter of what it is today (450 Mt). Consequently, the other three quarters need to be produced in blast furnaces using coal and freshly mined iron ore. … A 14 MW offshore wind turbine has a steel intensity that is almost 50 times higher than a fossil fuel power plant for every kilowatt-hour of electricity produced. … Furthermore, because they are more diffuse power sources with intermittent and unpredictable power production, often located far away from energy consumption centers, renewable power plants drive the expansion of transmission infrastructure. That infrastructure is also based on steel – from switchyard equipment over towers to conduction cables. … The only solution is to reduce material use overall. – How to Escape From the Iron Age?
How to Escape From the Iron Age?
These days I can't even read the comments on Low Tech Magazine, wtf. Doomers and Doubters everywhere.
Carbon credits?
Shell, which owns and operates a carbon capture facility in Alberta called Quest, agreed with the Alberta government to register and sell carbon credits that were valued at twice the amount of carbon it actually captured at Quest. – Shell Sold Millions of ‘Phantom’ Carbon Credits, by Brian Boyle, for The Daily Upside, because the original reporting by the Financial Times is behind a paywall
Shell Sold Millions of ‘Phantom’ Carbon Credits
An interview for the book, “A Darwinian Survival Guide.”
But what if it turns out that we think that embedded within all of that technologically dependent society there are some good things? What if we think that there are elements of that existence that are worth trying to save, from high technology to high art to modern medicine? In my particular case, without modern medical knowledge, I would have died when I was just 21 years old of a burst appendix. If I had managed to survive that, I would have died in my late 50s from an enlarged prostate. These are things most would prefer not to happen. What can we begin doing now that will increase the chances that those elements of technologically-dependent humanity will survive a general collapse, if that happens as a result of our unwillingness to begin to do anything effective with respect to climate change and human existence? – Daniel Brooks, in The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt?, an interview with Peter Watts, for The MIT Reader
The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt?
The end.
This is what needs to happen now: you need to bring down the world's governments in the next 10 years. Take
them over, and enact emergency measures to massively reduce carbon emissions, to suck carbon out of the
atmosphere, and to undertake geoengineering measures to stop the melting of the ice in the Arctic. Only these
actions have a chance of halting the slide towards extinction. These objectives, therefore, need to be pursued
ruthlessly, with total focus and dedication to the goals. Otherwise, all will be lost for good and indescribable
suffering will be the inevitable fate for you and future generations. There is no guarantee of success. The
situation is very probably too late, but there is no third option. Physics is brutal, it is not open to pleading or
persuasion. – Advice to Young People, as you Face Annihilation
Advice to Young People, as you Face Annihilation
Satellites:
With ongoing plans for many constellations of small satellites, the number of objects orbiting the Earth is expected to continue increasing in the foreseeable future. At the end of service life, satellites are disposed into the atmosphere, burning up during the process and generating aluminum oxides, which are known to accelerate ozone depletion. The environmental impacts from the reentry of satellites are currently poorly understood. This paper investigates the oxidation process of the satellite's aluminum content during atmospheric reentry utilizing atomic-scale molecular dynamics simulations. We find that the population of reentering satellites in 2022 caused a 29.5% increase of aluminum in the atmosphere above the natural level, resulting in around 17 metric tons of aluminum oxides injected into the mesosphere. The byproducts generated by the reentry of satellites in a future scenario where mega-constellations come to fruition can reach over 360 metric tons per year. As aluminum oxide nanoparticles may remain in the atmosphere for decades, they can cause significant ozone depletion. – Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, by José P. Ferreira, Ziyu Huang, Ken-ichi Nomura, Joseph Wang, in Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 51, Issue 11
Or, as @cstanhope@social.coop put it:
I'm still struggling to believe that throwing satellites into decaying orbits is a more cost effective way to provide internet access in the long run than a proper investment in fiber and related infrastructure. It feels like this makes sense only from a capitalist seeking returns on investment perspective assuming monopolistic capture of a market.
Switzerland:
Switzerland is no stranger to heatwaves, with blistering summers in 2003, 2015, 2018 and 2019, and record heatwaves in 2022 and 2023. … In Switzerland, some 500 heat-related deaths were recorded in 2022 – more than the figure for road traffic fatalities. All of them were over 75 years old and 60% of heat-related deaths were female. – Why older women are hit hardest by deadly heatwaves, by Simon Bradley and Pauline Turuban, for swissinfo
Why older women are hit hardest by deadly heatwaves
Appropriately:
In a much-anticipated ruling, the European Court of Human Rights has decided that Swiss authorities are responsible for not implementing efficient climate change policies and violating the right to life of a group of elderly women in Switzerland. – Landmark ruling: Switzerland’s climate policy violates human rights, by Luigi Jorio, for swissinfo
Landmark ruling: Switzerland’s climate policy violates human rights
But:
The committee requested that a declaration be issued stating that Switzerland sees no reason to comply with the judgement. The Senate will decide on the adoption of this declaration in the summer session. – Female climate activists could report Switzerland to Council of Europe
Last month the Senate Legal Affairs Committee concluded that the ECHR had “overreached its authority” with its climate judgement. – Justice minister warns over Swiss parliament protest against climate ruling
Female climate activists could report Switzerland to Council of Europe
Justice minister warns over Swiss parliament protest against climate ruling
Solarpunk:
Solarpunk is about how "sufficiently advanced civilization is indistinguishable from nature." – @stellarskylark@solarpunk.moe, link
Movie recommendation:
Watched "The End We Start From" yesterday. It is a 2023 BBC film that captures, in my opinion, an accurate fictional portrayal of #ClimateCatastrophe. Its timescale is sped up and its meteorological events are unlikely, but it portrays these events through the main character of a mother with a newborn over approximately 6-9 months, and it portrays well the types the suffering people will go through as food supplies dwindle and groups of population break into factions for survival. I highly recommend, especially for those with family members and friends who don't quite grasp what is on the horizon. – @Brad_Rosenheim@climatejustice.social
2.7°C and more:
Looking ahead, our current policy track would result in ~2.7 Co mean global warming by century’s end, and one credible study argues that, with fast and slow feedbacks, even current atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are sufficient to generate 10 Co heating. But even 2.7 degrees warming is sufficient to flatten agriculture in many areas and render large areas of Earth uninhabitable. – On Being a Snowflake in an Avalanche: The Catastrophe of Overshoot and How to Cope, by William E. Rees, for Resilience
On Being a Snowflake in an Avalanche: The Catastrophe of Overshoot and How to Cope
Overwhelming support:
Seventy eight percent of Americans—including 66% of Republicans—are concerned about climate change, a number that has increased dramatically in the last 3 years. … We tend to do what we see others do. Currently, worrying about climate change is something people are largely doing in the privacy of their own minds. Based on this new data and the recent work of others on pluralistic ignorance, it becomes clear that we are locked in a self-fulfilling spiral of silence. People believe that others are not concerned—or that they are even skeptical of climate change—which encourages them to refrain from discussing it with others. The lack of public discussion reinforces the norm that others are not concerned and hampers the likelihood of collective organization to address climate change. Misconceptions take on an even larger significance when we remember that those in positions of power are people too. – To create serious movement on climate change, we must dispel the myth of indifference (2022), by Cynthia McPherson Frantz, in Nature Communications
To create serious movement on climate change, we must dispel the myth of indifference
Note also the interview in Climate Change Actions Are Far More Popular Than People in U.S. Realize (2022), by Robin Lloyd with Gregg Sparkman:
Climate Change Actions Are Far More Popular Than People in U.S. Realize
If Americans have no idea what the public thinks, and instead they only look to Congress to estimate loosely how the country feels about something, they’re not going to be very accurate in that estimate. – Gregg Sparkman
There is no trust any more.
This spring, Democrats wrapped up a nearly three-year investigation into the fossil fuel industry’s role in climate disinformation, and asked the Department of Justice to pick up where they left off. In House and Senate Democrats’ final report and hearing, investigators concluded that major oil companies had not only misled the public on climate change for decades, but also were continuing to misinform them about the industry’s preferred climate “solutions”— particularly biofuels and carbon capture. – Oil companies sold the public on a fake climate solution — and swindled taxpayers out of billions, by Amy Westervelt, for Vox
Oil companies sold the public on a fake climate solution — and swindled taxpayers out of billions
The hurricane we're about to face:
For humanity as a whole, this amount of warming is risky, but not devastating. Global warming is currently at about 1.2-1.3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures and is likely to cross the 1.5-degree threshold in the late 2020s or early 2030s. Assuming that we don’t work exceptionally hard to reduce emissions in the next 10 years, the world is expected to reach 2 degrees Celsius of warming between 2045 and 2051. In my estimation, that will be akin to a major category 3 hurricane for humanity — devastating, but not catastrophic. Allowing global warming to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius will cause category 4-level damage to civilization — approaching the catastrophic level. And warming in excess of 3 degrees Celsius will likely be a catastrophic category 5-level superstorm of destruction that will crash civilization. – When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?
the weather will keep growing more extreme until net-zero emissions are reached – ibid.
When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?
On a somewhat lighter note:
Life on earth writ large, the grand network of life, is a greater and more dynamic terraforming engine than any person could ever conceive. It has been operating ceaselessly for several billions of years. It has not yet terraformed the South Pole or the summit of Mount Everest. On what type of timeframe were you imagining that the shoebox of lichen you send to Mars was going to transform Frozen Airless Radioactive Desert Hell into a place where people could grow wheat? – Neither Elon Musk Nor Anybody Else Will Ever Colonize Mars by Albert Burneko, for Defector
Neither Elon Musk Nor Anybody Else Will Ever Colonize Mars
The age of consequences:
We’ve barely entered the age of consequences. FEMA has already started running out of money halfway through hurricane season. They’re already having to pause some operations to prioritize emergency operations. – It Was Unthinkable. Then It Happened., by Jessica Wildfire, for OK Doomer
It Was Unthinkable. Then It Happened.
Antarctica is growing greener:
The researchers point to climate change as the driver of the landscape’s shift from white to green. Temperatures on the peninsula have risen by almost 3°C since 1950, which is a much bigger increase than observed across most parts of the planet. The “phenomenal” rate of expansion of greenery, Roland says, highlights the unprecedented changes that humans are imposing on Earth’s climate. – Believe it or not, this lush landscape is Antarctica, by Alix Soliman, for Nature
Believe it or not, this lush landscape is Antarctica
How long have we known about our impending doom?
In 1856 she published a paper notable for demonstrating the absorption of heat by CO₂ and water vapor and hypothesizing that changing amounts of CO₂ in the atmosphere would alter the climate. – Eunice Newton Foote
Despair:
Overall, 85·0% of respondents endorsed being at least moderately worried, and 57·9% very or extremely worried, about climate change and its impacts on people and the planet. 42·8% indicated an impact of climate change on self-reported mental health, and 38·3% indicated that their feelings about climate change negatively affect their daily life. Respondents reported negative thoughts about the future due to climate change and actions planned in response, including being likely to vote for political candidates who support aggressive climate policy (72·8%). – Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events, by R Eric Lewandowski, PhD ∙ Susan D Clayton, PhD ∙ Lukas Olbrich, MSc ∙ Joseph W Sakshaug, PhD ∙ Britt Wray, PhD ∙ Sarah E O Schwartz, PhD ∙ et al., for The Lancet: Planetary Health
Smartphones:
Our electricals don’t last as long as they used to. Their useful lifespans are decreasing and it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to repair them or replace key parts like a cracked screen. Whatever the reason, repeatedly manufacturing new products to replace old ones is not just bad news for consumers’ wallets. It’s also drastically increasing the threat of climate change. – Coolproducts don’t cost the Earth – Report
Our analysis shows that extending the lifetime of all washing machines, notebooks, vacuum cleaners and smartphones in the EU by just one year would save around 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) annually by 2030, the equivalent of taking over 2 million cars off the roads for a year. – Coolproducts: Report Briefing